The Czech Republic was the first, a few days ago, to take the plunge: it announced the delivery to the Ukrainians of assault tanks, T72M models of Soviet design. And Poland intends to do the same, with the same equipment. This is a first: until now, Europeans and Westerners have only ever supplied Ukraine with weapons for defense in the face of Russian aggression. By considering that to go beyond would run the risk of appearing as co-belligerents, therefore liable to be attacked in turn by Russia.
On April 9, the United Kingdom took over. Boris Johnson, visiting kyiv, announced the dispatch of 120 armored vehicles and Harpoon anti-ship missiles with a range of 200 km. Again offensive weapons. The German government wonders about a possible delivery of tanks: it is moreover divided on the subject. And Joe Biden’s United States is offering to supply suicide drones. As the days go by, the positions evolve gradually. We are not yet at the delivery of combat aircraft, as Poland had proposed for a while. But the topic of offensive weapons and heavy weapons is no longer a red line. And kyiv wants them, including latest-generation Western equipment, not just old Soviet weapons that the West wants to get rid of.
Two reasons explain this development. The first is military: the nature of war is about to change. The probable Russian offensive on eastern Ukraine promises to be massive, with aerial bombardments and heavy artillery fire. On a fairly flat terrain that can allow rapid progress. Faced with this threat, small arms, much used in guerrilla warfare around kyiv, will not suffice. Ukraine therefore calls for tanks, anti-aircraft batteries, heavy artillery to hold its positions. It makes sense from a military point of view. The second explanation is political. Westerners are beginning to think that a message of greater firmness should be sent to a Vladimir Putin who remains convinced of European softness. And then the risk, of course, is that Moscow, in the event of a victory in eastern Ukraine, will want to go even further. If we follow this reasoning, we must inflict a defeat on Vladimir Putin, right now. So delivery of heavy weapons.
At the same time, deliveries of lighter defensive weapons continue in very large numbers. First surface-to-air missiles and anti-tank missiles: Javelins, Stingers, NLAWs, delivered by the thousands by the United States, Germany, or the United Kingdom. Milan missiles supplied by France. S300 defense systems supplied by Slovakia. Turkish Bayraktar or American Switchblade drones. To stop the progress of tanks and the attacks of planes or helicopters at low altitude. And then also machine guns, pistols, body armor, night vision devices. On all these materials, “deliveries will intensify”, said the head of German diplomacy Annalena Baerbock on April 11. The statement is explicit.