“We would need at least fifteen to have real operational added value,” estimates an arms specialist

Léo Péria-Peigné judges that these French planes will “probably” not make the difference in this war.

“It would take at least fifteen” fighter “to have real operational added value and not just be a logistical burden”, estimates Léo Péria-Peigné, researcher at the Center for Security Studies at Ifri (French Institute of International Relations), specialist in arms issues, interviewed on franceinfo on Friday June 7. Emmanuel Macron announced, Thursday June 6, the “transfer of Mirage 2000-5, which are French combat aircraft which will allow Ukraine to protect its soil and airspace”. The head of state plans a delivery “from the end of the year”.

franceinfo: can the Mirage 2000-5 announced by Emmanuel Macron make the difference?

Léo Péria-Peigné: No, probably not. Firstly because they will not be available for Ukrainian air operations for a year, a year and a half, the time to train pilots, to train mechanics, to integrate these new machines into the army of the Ukrainian air. And above all because they will be delivered in a quantity which will probably be quite limited. We do not currently have any figures, but we are starting with something which will most likely be between 15, 20, 25 at most if France is not alone in providing them. But we remain with figures which are even more limited than those of the F-16s, which will be around 80.

Where will these planes delivered by France come from?

A priori, there is a part which is still operational and which is used by air force units. There is a portion that was stored relatively recently, but their condition is uncertain since the Air Force tends to take parts from aircraft that it no longer wants. We can envisage that other countries could contribute in one way or another to this donation to reach at least more than ten devices. Knowing that, in my opinion, it would take at least fifteen to have real operational added value and not just be a logistical burden.

In his speech to the Assembly, Volodymyr Zelensky asks for more help without giving details. What more does he need?

Above all, it would need new equipment and perhaps stop selling or giving away what is in the French army’s parks, which is not always new, but perhaps start really investing in providing new equipment. French industry can produce them, but the level of French aid in terms of financing remains quite limited. Which means that out of the 80 [canons] Caesar that Nexter, KNDS France, is able to supply this year, France has decreed that it will only purchase twelve. So it’s new equipment, but we buy very little of it. But that’s what Ukraine needs right now.

The Franco-German arms group KNDS has formalized the creation of a subsidiary in Ukraine. Could this mark a turning point in the war?

There are very few weapons that create a turning point. Otherwise, given the number of times this term is used, these wars would be a roundabout. There, what was announced is a subsidiary which will initially, a priori, be used for maintenance, for the repair of the systems which are already there, not necessarily for production which remains a fairly complex and quite difficult, especially in a country at war.