Each time, the tumble is fascinating. Despite the laxity, the negligence, the accumulation of openly climate-denialist decisions, they appear all smiles on the podiums, in front of the cameras, to say that we are moving in the right direction, that we must continue our fine efforts. In Glasgow this week, Justin Trudeau and François Legault thus succeeded in painting in green the very dark future which is sketching before us.
Justin Trudeau praised his carbon pricing model and pledged, alongside the leaders of some 20 countries, to stop, at the end of 2022, direct public funding of projects in the energy sector. fossils. The Canadian Ministry of Natural Resources, however, insisted on specifying, on the sidelines of the announcements made at the COP – and because one should especially not seem determined to put an end to hydrocarbons -, that in “rare circumstances clearly defined which correspond to the warming limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius and the objectives of the Paris Agreement ”, it would still be possible to support the exploitation of fossil fuels.
As for the Trudeau government’s carbon tax, the cost of which will reach $ 50 per tonne in 2022, we see that despite the pride displayed, its effect on reducing emissions is far from sufficient, and its cost is far from absorbing the damage caused by the extraction and consumption of hydrocarbons. The tax is also not incompatible with development new oil and gas projects, which easily manage to absorb the costs of this measure. Those responsible for more than half of Canada’s GHG emissions therefore need not worry too much. At best, the carbon tax is used to give the impression of strong government action, in order to disguise the state’s renunciation of defending the interests of the population vis-à-vis industry.
Very few things
We will therefore come out of COP26 with very little, if not a little more acute anxiety. Never mind, François Legault was keen to be reassuring when he arrived in Scotland, saying that even if he shares the feeling of urgency in the face of climate change – a feeling that is not reflected in the commitments past history of his government, neither in its current orientation, nor in its future projects – we should not “become anxious”.
We are doing things well in Quebec, he reminded us, better than anywhere else in North America, even. This did not prevent us from miserably missing the 20% GHG reduction target planned for 2020, reaching only a meager 6%. And meanwhile, on a global scale, emissions have resumed in force after the modest halt observed since the start of the pandemic, revealed a study by the Global Carbon Project published on the occasion of COP26.
To reach the target of 37.5% reduction from 1990 emissions by 2030, we would have to shift into fourth gear, make a radical shift that we should have made several years ago. Still according to the Global Carbon Project study, at the rate of emissions observed during the postpandemic recovery, there are only eight years left to have a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees, and 32 years to limit warming to 2 degrees. That’s ridiculously little, especially as it becomes increasingly clear that a warming beyond 2 degrees is more likely and closer than we thought.
Faster warming in Quebec
In Quebec, the climate is warming faster than the world average, the consequences on communities are multiplying at an alarming rate, and biodiversity is severely threatened. However, the consumption of petroleum products is tending to increase, and we are still being told about developing a $ 10 billion highway project with unassessed environmental impacts.
François Legault may say that we are doing better than elsewhere, one wonders how a government which, in 2018, was elected with an almost non-existent environmental platform and which, today, still does not grant the environment that the attention of a demi-minister, could allay the anxiety experienced by those who risk ending their lives on a disfigured planet. Because that’s what awaits us.
Again this week, a large-scale study conducted at the Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences of the University of Sherbrooke with 10,000 people indicated that the climate crisis is already significantly affecting the mental health of Quebecers. However, it is no longer just a question of facing anxiety, but also a deep feeling of loss, an overwhelming mourning.
For people of my generation and those who follow, the risks posed by the climate crisis entirely determine the outlook for the future. There are no more dreams, no more projects that are not shaped by the tangible, concrete reality of the destruction of ecosystems and our living environments.
We are preparing to face decades of disappearance, destruction and human suffering. Those of us who are lucky enough to live old will die on an unrecognizable planet. It is now a certainty. The only question that remains unanswered is whether we will die on a habitable planet. There’s not much room left for optimism – and in fact, optimism isn’t much use. Perhaps the only thing we have left is resilience.