“We must seize this moment to say that the slope towards defeat is not inevitable,” argues historian Justin Vaïsse

Founder and general director of the Paris Peace Forum, Justin Vaïsse explains what he expects from the conference organized in Paris, which will be attended by the vast majority of European leaders, American and Canadian representatives, as well as the head of diplomacy British.

“We must seize this moment to say that no, the slope towards defeat is not inevitable”, argued this Monday on franceinfo the historian Justin Vaïsse, founder and general director of the Paris Peace Forum, a few hours before the Paris Conference on Ukraine. Emmanuel Macron receives 21 heads of state and government on Monday February 26 to breathe new life into support for Ukraine at war for two years. “It’s Europe’s time”he warns.

franceinfo: Emmanuel Macron brings together around twenty leaders at the Élysée to “clarify” and “massify” European support for Ukraine. What’s behind this ?

Justin Vaïsse: It’s Europe’s time. What happened in the last few months is that everyone became aware that Donald Trump could arrive next November. And then there was a second wave which is due to the fact that this arrival of Trump was in some way preceded by his action in Congress. Through his elected Republican representatives, he blocked all aid to Ukraine, which means that, since the beginning of January, Europe has been alone in supporting Ukraine. We expected the Biden administration to firmly support Ukraine until November but we realize that, thanks to Congress blocking funding and military aid, we have been on our own since the 1st. January. Europeans know that they are alone, that they must do more. Now the supplies must follow.

Hence the term “massify” used by the Élysée which evokes a change of scale?

Exactly. Let us recall that Ukraine has faced several problems. It is a country of just over 40 million inhabitants compared to a country of 140 million inhabitants. It is not a large economy and therefore Ukraine needs this support to resist the invader, including very concrete things such as the supply of shells, artillery pieces and other types of weaponry. provided by Westerners.

Can we expect new announcements after the European aid of 50 billion euros over four years decided on February 1?

We can indeed hope that there will be announcements soon. But even more important is the moment of crystallization, of awareness and we must seize this moment to say that no, the slope towards defeat is not inevitable. War comes and goes. We know well that the First World War is the good analogy in my opinion for this Ukrainian war. This is a difficult moment for Ukraine, but we can hope that Europeans will indeed still be by its side for many months and years to come.

With this distancing from the United States, does this force the Europeans to completely rethink their software, in particular the question of the functioning of NATO? ? Does this imply a shift to a “war economy”? ?

Yes, on the one hand the functioning of NATO and on the other hand, what is most important, the arms industry, that is to say the supply of weapons to Ukraine which, for the moment, is very late. We had promised the Ukrainians a million shells for next March, we won’t be there at all. It will probably not be until the beginning of 2025. We are not in a war economy. But for the moment, the production lines have not been disrupted to produce at high speed what is needed for Ukrainians. There are often announcement effects during meetings, during major summits, but on the ground, the weapons are slow to arrive. So the Ukrainians manage, they tinker with 3D printers, they make drones themselves, etc. But it is very important that Western leaders not only provide more weapons, but deliver them on time as well.