Bernard Jullien, founder of a research firm on automotive industry and services, explains on franceinfo the German turnaround on the end of heat engines for new vehicles.
In Germany, “we have winners and losers” of the electrification of the car fleet, assures this Monday, March 13 on franceinfo Bernard Jullien, lecturer in economics at the University of Bordeaux, founder of FERIA, a study firm on automotive industry and services. Last week, while the European Union was to enact the end of thermal engines for new vehicles in 2035, Germany let it be known that it would not ultimately vote for this text.
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This German reversal can be explained politically and economically according to Bernard Jullien. Compared to their recent electoral setbacks, the economics lecturer “sees a coup carried out by the German liberals” Who “decided that it was quite appropriate in relation to their current political fate to go and defend this pursuit of thermals”. Moreover, he believes that if the “German builders” have prepared well for this transition to 100% electric, the small subcontractors who represent “lots of jobs” still need to be supported. He proposes to reopen “the negotiations” with these companies to promote “innovation.”
franceinfo: Why is Germany holding back so much on this regulation of heat engines?
Bernard Julien: First of all, there is a problem of domestic politics, that is to say that the Liberals decided that it was quite opportune in relation to their current political fate to go and defend this pursuit of thermal energy. These policies have gone to tell SMEs, which are rather victims of the turning point of electrification, that they are not alone in the face of very large companies. There was probably an arbitration that was made by Olaf Scholz in favor of the liberals and against the ecologists who explain this. It is a domestic political problem.
Then, the problem at the European level, it is often more consistent since, as Bruno Le Maire says, we still have manufacturers who are very firmly committed to electric. They have product launch schedules that are calculated on this kind of near certainty that the thermal was going to end. In the event of a reversal, these manufacturers would have reason to be very unhappy, including German manufacturers such as Volkswagen. This brand was very committed and was even probably at the origin of the electrification movement which is now being questioned by Germany.
You tell us that this “Arbitration in Germany is political” but is it also economical?
Yes, in this electrification movement, we have winners and losers. The winners, they are possibly rather on the side of the German manufacturers. German manufacturers are very committed to China where they are obliged to electrify their ranges. Suddenly, they sought to have a technology that would allow them to be both present in Europe and present in China. They chose electric.
Obviously, this is less the case for subcontractors, especially for small companies which are often mono active. It was thought that the electrification losers only had their eyes to cry. In fact, they also have political support in Germany. Negotiations will have to be reopened so that these losers, faced with all-electric, innovate and are both integrated a little better in the choices and that at the same time they do not call into question this course that has been taken. .
Do we have the same problems today in France?
We have the same problems, of course, we have a reconversion which is in its infancy and everyone has understood that it was going to be relatively problematic for a whole series of companies. Today, we have already seen that in the foundries, which were already suffering with dieselization, things will get worse. There are very serious problems here on the industrial or social level.
But they are perhaps a bit more acute in Germany because there are a lot more jobs. These jobs are both in Germany, but they are also in the Eastern countries where part of the equipment for German cars is manufactured.
Negotiations will have to be reopened so that these electrification losers innovate and are both integrated a little better in the choices and that at the same time they do not call into question the course that has been taken.