“We have the impression that this campaign only revolved around Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the left”, estimated Thursday, June 9 on Rémi Lefebvre, political scientist, professor at the University of Lille 2 and researcher at the Center for Administrative, Political and Social Studies and Research (CERAPS). Three days before the first round of the legislative elections, he observes Emmanuel Macron’s change of strategy which “seems more present to mobilize his electorate” because “Polls show progress for the left-wing coalition”. According to Rémi Lefebvre, with the “Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s strategy of presidentializing these legislative elections, there is a risk of a slightly stronger mobilization of the left-wing electorate.”
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franceinfo: Emmanuel Macron is very present at the end of the legislative campaign. Is this a sign of some concern?
Remi Lefebvre: Yes, it is the sign of a certain feverishness no doubt. Emmanuel Macron’s strategy was quite clear until then. It consisted in anesthetizing the debate, in not giving rise to any controversy. There were no government announcements, unlike what he had done in 2017, a stifled communication from ministers, the late composition of this government for that matter. So there was the idea of giving no hold to criticism or controversy. This strategy does not seem very good in view of the polls which show a progression of the left coalition. So, a few days before the first round, Emmanuel Macron seems more present to mobilize his electorate.
There are many question marks before the vote this Sunday. It is quite difficult to read this election today, in particular because there are doubts both on the participation and on the vote reserves of each party for the second round.
There are a lot of uncertainties. But the main one is the level of participation. Legislative elections are dominated by an issue that political scientists call differential abstentionism, that is to say that the electorates have a more or less strong capacity to mobilize. In general, the voters of the camp that lost, in this case the left and the extreme right, tend to demobilize, not to vote. So there is an overmobilization of the camp that won the presidential election. This is what has allowed since 2002 (since the establishment of the five-year term) all the Presidents of the Republic to benefit from a strong majority. That’s the classic scenario.
“There, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s fairly clever strategy of politicizing and presidentialising these legislative elections, there is a risk of a slightly stronger mobilization of the left-wing electorate.”
Rémi Lefebvre, political scientistat franceinfo
Even if the young and popular electorate of Jean-Luc Mélenchon may also not vote. So the risk is that part of the Macronist electorate will say to themselves “it’s not worth going to vote”. Hence the desire to dramatize this election, to demonize the camp of the left to encourage the Macronist electorate to vote on Sunday.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon appears as a sort of centrifugal force in the countryside: his rivals attack him, the head of state, in the lead.
Indeed, it is quite striking. Jean-Luc Mélenchon has succeeded in his bet which was to structure these legislative elections. He is at the heart of these legislative elections, he and the left-wing coalition that he managed to federate. We practically only talk about him during the campaign. Emmanuel Macron does not develop a program, the candidates of La République en Marche do not really develop a programmatic. The right, very present nationally, is withdrawn into its local strongholds and plays the local card. And the extreme right was not very present. And as today, Emmanuel Macron demonizes this coalition to mobilize his electorate, one has the impression that this campaign only revolved around Jean-Luc Mélenchon and the left.