“We have the impression that since Mediapro, the League is doing anything,” notes Pierre Maes, TV rights specialist

Ligue 1, which resumes in two and a half months, still does not have a broadcaster for the 2024-2029 period.

Who will broadcast Ligue 1 from August 16? For the moment, the answer is unknown, while negotiations between the Professional Football League (LFP) and potential broadcasters (Canal+, BeIN Sports, DAZN, etc.) are entering the home stretch. An unprecedented situation, which is deciphered for franceinfo: sport Pierre Maes, TV rights consultant and author of The ruin of French football (Fyp, 2022).

Franceinfo: sport: Is the situation worrying, when the championship resumes in two and a half months?

Pierre Maes: For the product, it’s almost a new disaster. It is tossed around from one operator to another and has lost a lot of visibility. Viewers, who are tired of going through all this, have switched to piracy. For the League, it is also a disaster in terms of its image. We have the impression that since Mediapro [l’éphémère diffuseur de la Ligue 1, qui a cessé ses paiements en pleine saison, en 2020], she does anything. There was Mediapro, the transfer of rights to Amazon for a third of the price of what Mediapro should have paid, and there is now this sale of 2024-2029 rights which is a succession of catastrophic errors.

Will the clubs be the big losers in this negotiation?

It’s worrying. For the smallest, who are more dependent on TV rights than the larger ones, this can go beyond 80% of their income. These clubs can be in trouble, especially if they already have significant spending commitments. And the bulk of the expenses are player salaries.

“As TV rights are not going to be very high, clubs will have even fewer arguments to attract and keep good quality players.”

Pierre Maes

TV rights consultant

Is Canal+ now in a position of strength?

Yes. In fact, nothing has changed compared to before the tender. Today we are in a very uncompetitive market, not to say monopolistic, and Canal+ is in control. He has had to face a lot of competitors over the last decade: BeIN Sports, Altice, Mediapro… He managed to get rid of them one by one. Today, we no longer have a very aggressive player of this type, so it is a monopoly situation. In this case, it is the buyer who determines the price.

Are Canal+ and BeIN Sports playing for time to lower the amount of rights, while Vincent Labrune, the president of the LFP, was aiming for a billion euros?

It was one of his big mistakes. Although you never know, the scenario can be reversed and result in a wonderful surprise. But today, we can say that the rights are not going to be sold very expensively. To have trumpeted this billion goal everywhere was not something very intelligent.

“We cannot imagine, in England, the Premier League being in constant dispute with the dominant operator that is Sky. On the contrary, they have built a win-win relationship. Here, it is quite the opposite.”

Pierre Maes

TV rights consultant

Canal+ will not show off, but above all, it will be pragmatic. We remember how they were tricked by Vincent Labrune when the rights were assigned to Amazon, Labrune having made Canal believe that they had a deal.

Is this situation above all the failure of the LFP?

I think so. The most general error is not realizing that the market is without competition and monopolistic. Before, it was easy: you threw the rights on the market and the broadcasters fought for hundreds of millions. All that is over, and not only in France.

“We have to be much more pragmatic and have much more humility, which the League cannot do in general. And in particular on this call for tenders, where there were enormous errors. “

Pierre Maes

TV rights consultant

Which ones?

The first was to organize it so late. When you are in a market without competition, it is important to organize a call for tenders very early, because a new player may arrive. But above all, it gives you time, because you know that you are going to have one-on-one negotiations. All leagues do this. The other mistake is to have innovated by introducing price increases instead of reserve prices. Generally, leagues set reserve prices, which is a price below which you won’t sell, but which allows broadcasters to make offers at whatever price they want. This time, they set prices, which prevent a broadcaster from making a lower offer, which also corresponded to the billion target, therefore very high. They had to knock on everyone’s house to say: “Can you make us an offer?”

Is the prospect of a 100% Ligue 1 channel led by the LFP credible in your opinion?

It’s big bullshit basic. This is to try to scare Canal+. They still think they are in the old pattern: Canal+ has no intention of depriving its subscribers of Ligue 1, it is not going to take that risk. So the LFP is playing on it. But there is absolutely no serious project behind this announcement.

What is the most likely outcome of this negotiation?

The unknowns are few, in the end. In 2022, my prediction on Ligue 1 domestic rights was €500 million per season. I wouldn’t change it for a euro. With Canal+ which will take what it wants, that is to say the two or three best matches, and an operator who would take the rest. I don’t see how we’re going to get out of this scenario, because there is no other way. There is only one thing missing for this scenario to take shape: for the League to demonstrate humility and pragmatism. But for the moment, we are not there.