Good news for motorists. Pending the implementation of the “discount at the pump” of 15 cents from April 1 announced by Jean Castex on Saturday, the fuel bill should already be lower from Monday March 14. A cold spell on the oil markets follows the recent disturbances linked to the war in Ukraine, and should bring prices down below the symbolic bar of 2 euros per litre.
Franceinfo explains the reasons for this expected fall in fuel prices, which remains questionable and could only be temporary.
Markets are trending down
Oil prices have been falling gradually for several days. the March 11, the price of a barrel of crude oil (Brent) indeed fell back to around 111 dollars, against 128 dollars at the start of the week – its highest level for eight years. If this price remains far from the 98 dollars before the Russian invasion in Ukraine, it still pushes the actors of the large distribution to optimism.
Among them, Michel-Edouard Leclerc, Chairman of the strategic committee of the E. Leclerc centres, announced on Friday on BFMTV a drop of around 35 euro cents per liter of diesel, starting Monday. A phenomenon that the big boss explains by the drop in crude oil prices, on the one hand, but also by the recent rise of the euro against the dollar.
World oil prices are stabilizing in any case, after the feverish outbreak caused by the decision of the United States to no longer import Russian gas and oil, announced on March 8 by American President Joe Biden. An embargo shared by the United Kingdom, which will stop importing Russian crude oil and petroleum products by the end of the year. For Americans, this announcement coincided with an unprecedented rise in fuel prices, which exceeded the levels recorded during the 2008 financial crisis.
EU countries continue to buy Russian oil
The absence of a European embargo on Russian oil is currently limiting the rise in prices at the pump. Because although the European Union has passed sanctions described as “unpublished” contrary to the regime of Vladimir Putin, the Twenty-Seven are unable to agree on imports of black gold from Russia. Some EU Member States are indeed more dependent than others on Russian energy, which nevertheless represents 40% of the gas and 26% of the oil imported into Europe, as the European Commission points out. (document in English).
In France, where 17% of the gas and a little less than 13% of the oil imported come from Russia according to the Ministry of Ecological Transition, fuel sellers are far from having cut ties with their Russian suppliers. “A third of our fuel on the Atlantic coast comes via Russian traders, detailed Michel-Edouard Leclerc, interviewed by franceinfo on March 7. The problem is to go from one supply to another, to get barges in the United States, which take a month to come.
Doing without Russia is very complicated, and above all would have direct consequences on the prices displayed in service stations. “It is above all a dependence on refined products, in particular road diesel, diesel”, detailed to France 2 Nicolas Mazzucchi, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS).
This clearing may not last
With their ups and downs, oil markets remain extremely volatile and could still fluctuate significantly – while no way out has yet appeared in the Ukrainian conflict. “We fear that these increases will continue from week to week”, confided Dominique Schelcher, CEO of the Système U group, interviewed on France Inter on March 9. Oil companies and distributors claim that they cannot influence selling prices. “We have no right to sell at a loss, underlined Dominique Schelcher. So, we are obviously obliged to pass on these increases (…) and we take very little margin on this.
Several factors therefore remain to be monitored: the implementation of new European sanctions against Moscow, the choices of French distributors, but also Russia’s attitude towards its European customers in terms of energy. – a market that remains vital to Vladimir Putin’s regime. While waiting for a more lasting stabilization of fuel prices, the French are adapting as best they can and are more and more cautious when going to the pump.