we explain to you why you should take seat projections with a grain of salt

At 8pm on Sunday 30 June, a chamber dominated by navy blue appeared on the television screens of the various television channels. As it stands, the various projections from the polling institutes anticipate a large relative majority for the National Rally, or even a short absolute majority. According to the Ipsos-Talan projection for France Télévisions, Radio France, France 24, RFI and LCP based on the results of the first round, the RN and its allies could have 230 to 280 deputies, which is much more than during the previous legislature (88 deputies). The New Popular Front would only have between 125 and 165 seats.

But these seat projections provided yesterday, on the evening of the first round, should be taken with great caution. The ranges provided by polling institutes are the result of a complex combination, taking into account local situations and the application of a coefficient linked to past results in the territory.

But all the pollsters recognize the limits of these figures delivered on the evening of the first round. “It’s as if on the evening of the first round of the presidential election, we were trying to give the score for the second round”explains Jérôme Fourquet, director of the opinion department of Ifop, in The world. The pollster adds that there is a “very strong media and political pressure for there to be screenings in seats”despite the relative reliability of these projections.

It is customary to be very careful when handling polls, but when it comes to seat projections, we must therefore be extra vigilant. “Such an exercise does not have the same methodological frameworks as surveys and remains dependent on a large number of parameters, often specific to each of the 577 constituencies”also warns the polling commission.

At this stage, the seat projections do not take into account the dynamics between the two rounds at the local level in each of the constituencies. They were carried out before the announcement of potential withdrawals, even though the first round produced 306 three-way races and four four-way races. For comparison, there were only eight three-way races in 2022.

During the election night, the instructions of the different political blocs were recited. The leaders of the left-wing parties asked their candidates who came in third place to withdraw when the candidates of the National Rally came in first. The presidential camp is still hesitating between a similar position and a principle of “neither RN nor LFI”, expressed in particular by the former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe. Finally, Les Républicains refused to give voting instructions.

To refine the projection, the behavior of the different candidates on the ground must be observed. They can choose to maintain their candidacy despite calls to withdraw. Some have already announced the withdrawal of their candidacy, such as the Macronist Albane Branlant in the 1st constituency of the Somme, where François Ruffin is facing the surge of the RN, or the ministers Sabrina Agresti-Roubache and Marie Guévenoux, who came in third place. Conversely, some candidates are resisting, such as Graig Monetti (Horizons), who chose to maintain his candidacy, despite his third place, behind Eric Ciotti (LR-RN) and Olivier Salerno (LFI).

Beyond the candidates, are the voting instructions followed by voters? The “republican front” which has long existed to block the far right has largely fractured in recent years, like the position taken on Sunday evening by Les Républicains. The radical left is now also seen as a threat. Among the voters, among those who vote above all for “to block”, 52% do it to counter the RN, while 36% do it to block the New Popular Front, according to a recent Ipsos survey for Radio France. Furthermore, the left alliance is rejected by 63% of those questioned.

However, the withdrawals of certain applications should still have an impact on the results. “Even if voters do not mechanically follow the instructions of their political leaders, we will have an effect which will rather work against the RN”commented Brice Teinturier, the deputy CEO of Ipsos, on France Inter. “These withdrawals could cause the National Rally to lose between 20, 30 constituencies, or even a little more”he added on France 2. According to the political scientist, at present, the RN is therefore moving towards “a relative majority” rather than an absolute majority.