A highly symbolic step. The European Council, which brings together all the Heads of State of the European Union, could decide on June 23 and 24 in favor of granting the status of candidate country to Ukraine. First essential step to hope to join the EU one day, this status makes it possible to officially open negotiations on membership. This is only the very beginning of the process – which can take decades. This “legal commitment” is still demanded by kyiv, which has expressed its desire to integrate the European Union “without delay” after the start of the Russian invasion.
During their joint visit to Kyiv, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and Romanian President Klaus Iohannis announced their support for granting official candidate status to Ukraine . And the next day, Friday June 16, Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, also spoke out in favor of such a decision. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reacted on Twitter saying he was “grateful to Ursula von der Leyen” and greeting “a historic decision”.
Will the Heads of State, who have the last word on the subject, follow these recommendations? Officially, discussions are underway, but behind the scenes, the leaders of the Twenty-Seven are divided on the issue. Poland, a neighbor of Ukraine and worried about Russia’s actions, has notably made itself the voice of Ukrainian aspirations. A favorable European decision “is of extreme importance, above all psychological and political”explained Polish President Andrzej Duda, quoted by The Obsduring an intervention before the Ukrainian Parliament on 22 May.
Proponents of a “yes” to Ukraine justify their position by the highly symbolic significance of the decision. “The argument of these countries is that we must give a European perspective to Ukraine”explains Georgina Wright, director of the Europe program at the Institut Montaigne, a Parisian think-tank.
“The pro-Ukraine believe that the war is not only Ukrainian, but European, and that we have a duty to respond to Ukraine.”
Georgina Wright, Europe Specialistat franceinfo
A line defended by kyiv, in particular by the chief of staff of President Volodymyr Zelensky, who argued with Politico (in English) that “Ukrainian soldiers” Were fighting “to defend European values”.
Granting candidate status would also allow the EU “go further”after “the six packages of sanctions decided by the Europeans against Russia”, notes Susi Dennison, analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, a London think-tank. A way for the EU “to show support for Ukraine, when it probably can’t do much more in terms of arms deliveries or sanctions”. Despite this declared desire, Poland and its allies have to face skepticism from other member countries, in particular the Scandinavian countries, Spain and the Netherlands.
There are several reasons for this reluctance. Denmark especially fearful for “respect for the rule of law in Ukraine” because “the country has not implemented enough reforms, particularly in the fight against corruption”, notes Susi Dennison. By signing an association agreement in 2014, Ukraine nevertheless undertook to reform its institutions and its economy, to bring them into line with European Union standards.
Above all, several countries are concerned about “the ability of the EU to absorb new countries, when it is already complicated to take decisions at 27”analyzes Georgina Wright.
“France defends in particular a reform of the functioning of the EU and of the accession process, before any enlargement.”
Georgina Wright, Europe Specialistat franceinfo
In 2019, Emmanuel Macron was also opposed to the entry of North Macedonia and Albania into the union, for the same reasons.
In the corridors of the European institutions, diplomats are torn precisely over this problem, considered to be one of the blocking elements of the negotiations. It must be said that several Balkan countries – Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia – have already been waiting on the EU’s doorstep for many years.
“We should not give the idea that Ukraine has the right to go faster than these countries.”
Susi Dennison, Europe Specialistat franceinfo
Giving pledges to Ukraine, without offending the countries that are waiting, is a balancing act, an exercise made all the more difficult by the fact that Moldova and Georgia have also officially asked to be candidates, a few weeks after the start of the conflict. If the two countries share the fear of an invasion by Russia, the candidacy of Moldova, which has largely turned towards Europe, is a consensus. This is less the case for Georgia, considered to be further from Brussels.
The stalemate in accession negotiations – North Macedonia became a candidate in 2005 and is still not a member of the EU – moreover prompted Emmanuel Macron to warn the Ukrainians in May that the process could take “decades”reports France 24. Hence the French president’s proposal to create a “European political community” during a speech in Strasbourg on May 9, a community that Ukraine could join.
The proposal, with still vague outlines, would allow, according to the Head of State, “to the democratic European nations adhering to our base of values, to find a new space for political cooperation, security, cooperation”, pending entry into the EU. One way, according to Georgina Wright, of proposing “an alternative, before the EU rethinks the enlargements”. According to information from France Télévisions, the idea should also be discussed at the next European Council.
However, it was immediately rejected by kyiv. “Ukraine respects the European Union, and we want to enjoy the same respect”, thus indignant Volodymyr Zelensky in front of students, shortly after the speech of his French counterpart. It’s simple, “it would be a disaster”warns Alyona Getmanchuk, director of the Ukrainian think-tank New Europe Centre.
“Ukrainians would not understand why things are so complicated, when no one is talking about becoming an EU member immediately. We know there is still work to do.”
Alyona Getmanchuk, Director of New Europe Centerat franceinfo
Conversely, a positive response “would be a way to give us wings and anchor Ukraine to Western Europe”, assures the researcher. A way to reward Ukrainians, while the European flag was in all the 2014 pro-democracy demonstrations in the country. And then, “giving candidate status is not the same as validating membership”emphasizes Georgia Wright.
The debates ahead of the European Council, which will also have to decide on the fate reserved for Georgia and Moldova, promise to be tense. “It seems likely that Ukraine will be declared a candidate”confided a European diplomat to France Télévisions.
“Reluctant countries have no choice now that Germany, France and Italy have said yes.”
A European diplomatat France Televisions
But not without conditions. These should consist “to ask Ukraine for institutional reforms, particularly in terms of corruption”. In any case, it is difficult to imagine the EU starting negotiations immediately, while the country is still at war. And so as not to alienate the countries whose accession process is stagnating, “a signal will also be sent to the Balkan countries”. Which ? “Probably promises to deepen the partnerships already in place.”
But do Europeans even have a choice? “A refusal would have a very high political cost, while giving an agreement does not cost much”, underlined the same diplomat. Especially since the Twenty-Seven must reckon with the pressure maintained by the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, who notably declared during Ursula von der Leyen’s visit to kyiv that a “yes” from the EU “would be a positive answer to the question of whether the European project has a future at all”.