It’s a flip-flop. Worried about its security since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, Finland announced on Friday April 15, through the voice of its Minister for European Affairs, Tytti Tuppurainenit was “very probable” that his country submits an application to join NATO soon.
Two days earlier, during a trip to its Swedish neighbour, which is also considering future membership, the head of the Finnish government, Sanna Marin, had declared that the decision on a candidacy would be taken “in a few weeks”after a debate organized in Parliament.
A diplomatic and military affront for Russia, which has always refused to see the military alliance of North Atlantic countries at its doorstep in order to assert itself in the face of Western omnipresence in the region. Several members of the Russian government have already warned that membership of these two neutral countries in NATO would “military and nuclear consequences”.
For Finland, which has a 1,300 kilometer border with Russia, joining the 30-member US-led alliance would provide a deterrent “significantly larger” against an attack from its neighbour, indicates the “White Book” unveiled a few days ago (link in English) on this specific topic.
If this report urgently commissioned by the Finnish government after the Russian attack on Ukraine does not imply for the moment a decision for or against membership, for the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Pekka Haavisto, the war in Ukraine imposes to open this debate on NATO.
“Russia is ready to take more risks than before, as this attack on Ukraine showed. Then it showed itself capable of concentrating more than 100,000 men against a country”, assures the Finnish minister to AFP. The latter also wants to anticipate the possible future risks that his country incurs vis-à-vis Russia, in particular “in the face of tactical and chemical nuclear weapons”.
“The Finns seem to have made up their mind and there is already a huge majority in favor of joining NATO”assured at the start of the week the Minister for European Affairs, Tytti Tuppurainen. Support for membership, which had been hovering around 20% to 25% for decades, suddenly tripled from 70% to 80%, according to the latest polls in the country. Lhe Finnish Prime Minister, Sanna Marin, could therefore announce her country’s decision to join NATO without even going through a prior referendum.
On the side of the Finnish Parliament, a clear political majority is also taking shape. Among the deputies who have already made their position known, one hundred out of 200 are in favor of membership and only 12 are against, according to the scores of several local media.
Finland has also increased consultations in recent weeks with almost all NATO members. Like Sweden, the country has obtained clear assurances from the Organisation’s Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, and the support of several countries such as the United States, Germany, France and the United Kingdom.
These announcements from neighboring Finland made the Kremlin jump. Russia sees the Alliance as an existential threat to its national security. In particular, it justified its offensive in Ukraine by its desire to counter kyiv’s Atlanticist ambitions and Western political and military support for Ukraine.
Moscow has therefore got into the habit of regularly threatening Finland and Sweden if they join NATO. But, Thursday, April 14, the warnings went up a notch. In case of rallying, “The borders of the Alliance with Russia would more than double. And these borders will have to be defended”noted the current number two of the Security Council of Russia, Dmitry Medvedev, in a message on Telegram.
“A sane person (…) cannot wish for tensions to rise on his border and have next to his house (missiles) Iskander, hypersonic, and ships with nuclear weapons.”
Dmitry Medvedev, number 2 of the Security Council of Russiaon Telegram
“In this case, there can be no question of a [mer] non-nuclear Baltic”, he added. He also referred to deployments of infantry and anti-aircraft systems in northwestern Russia and naval forces in the Gulf of Finland.
Those countries “must understand the consequences of such a step for our bilateral relations and for the European security architecture as a whole“said Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.
“Being a member of NATO cannot strengthen their national security. De facto, Finland and Sweden will be NATO’s front line.”
Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministryin a press release
If Finland joins NATO, the United States and its Western allies would therefore have the possibility of positioning themselves militarily on the Russian border. “For a great strategist like Putin, it’s still one of the biggest failures. If you add to that Western unity that the invasion [de l’Ukraine] arouses, the reinforcement of NATO or the response of the European Union as an entity, it is almost a Bingo card of everything that Russia did not want”, says Charly Salonius-Pasternak, researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, in Release (article reserved for subscribers).
Finland now fears reprisals from Moscow, in particular during the transition period which will precede its possible entry into NATO. Helsinki thinks it will take four to twelve months to complete the membership process after an agreement and unanimous ratification by NATO. Finland would then be the 31st state to join the Atlantic Alliance, which already includes Poland, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, bordering Russia.