The request from the Palestinian authorities, initiated in 2011, must be examined once again by the UN Security Council. But the process has very little chance of succeeding, particularly due to American reluctance.
“A sword in the water”, breathes researcher Sébastien Boussois. The UN Security Council must decide on Thursday April 18 on the Palestinians’ request to become a full member state of the United Nations. Highlighting the Israeli offensive in Gaza, the Palestinians relaunched their request for membership in the UN, initiated in 2011, at the beginning of April. But this approach, barring any surprises, seems doomed to failure and above all seems symbolic on the part of the Palestinian Authority.
To gain membership in the United Nations, you must obtain a vote from the UN General Assembly with a two-thirds majority. According to the Palestinian Authority’s count, nearly 140 UN member states unilaterally recognize a Palestinian state. With the UN having 193 members, the request would apparently have every chance of being accepted by the UN General Assembly.
The American veto as a probable obstacle
But to obtain a vote in the General Assembly, you must first pass the Security Council stage. The request of a State “must be the subject of a favorable vote by nine of the 15 members of the Council [de sécurité]including that of all of its five permanent members”, recalls the UN website. Among the permanent members (China, France, United States, Russia and United Kingdom), the Americans are opposed to this Palestinian initiative and do not hesitate to use their veto. “The Israeli government does not want a Palestinian state and the Americans are obeying their ally by blocking it”summarizes Sébastien Boussois, researcher in political science and specialist in the Middle East.
Already in 2011, the procedure launched by the president of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas encountered American opposition. And the Palestinians finally obtained lower status in November 2012 “non-member observer state” during a vote of the General Assembly. The United States has continued to repeat in recent weeks that its position “did not change” since 2011. They believe that the UN is not the place for the recognition of a Palestinian state, which should, according to them, be the result of an agreement between Israelis and Palestinians.
They also recall that American legislation would require them to cut their funding to the UN in the event of Palestinian accession outside of such a bilateral agreement. “From Washington’s point of view, putting the issue of Palestinian statehood on the agenda probably makes it more difficult to convince the Israelis of a ceasefire.” in Gaza, Richard Gowan, analyst at the International Crisis Group, also told AFP.
The mirage of a two-state solution
Behind this UN recognition, there is the desire to push for the two-state solution. “Everyone is talking about the two-state solution, so what is the logic in preventing us from being a member state?”argues in his request the Palestinian ambassador to the UN, Riyad Mansour, in response to the possibility of an American veto. “It was the international community that decided to create two states in Palestine in 1947. It is the duty of the international community, alongside the Palestinian people, to complete this process by admitting Palestine as a member state”also declared the diplomat in February.
In 1947, the UN General Assembly actually passed a resolution dividing Palestine, then under British mandate, into two independent states, one Arab, the other Jewish, and creating an international zone around Jerusalem. But only the creation of Israel was then proclaimed, on May 14, 1948, provoking a war between the new state and several Arab countries. Since then, Palestinians have continued to demand the creation of a Palestinian state.
But after the Hamas attacks on October 7, the Israeli government explicitly rejected any two-state solution. The Israeli Parliament voted massively in February against everythinge “unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state”. Despite the low probability of a positive opinion from the Security Council, Israel has virulently denounced the fact that the Palestinian Authority’s request is being examined.
In the midst of conflict, the situation therefore seems frozen. “As long as the current coalition in power in Israel is in place, as long as Hamas is not militarily destroyed and as long as the Palestinian Authority has not agreed to take charge of Gaza, we are speaking a bit in a vacuum “estimates Frédéric Encel, doctor in geopolitics and professor at Sciences Po.
An opportunistic diplomatic initiative
In the context of the ongoing deadly conflict in the Gaza Strip, the Palestinian authority is also seeking to remobilize the international community. The initiative at least has the merit of allowing the Palestinians to count their allies. They have already received the “support” representatives of Arab countries and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, which brings together 57 states whose population is predominantly Muslim.
The Palestinians “know that this is the time to push this question [d’adhésion à l’ONU]which risks fading if there is a ceasefire and UN members focus on other things”explains researcher Richard Gowan to AFP. “The Palestinian Authority is relaunching the diplomatic aspect at a time when Israel has been severely criticized by many states, including allies”confirms Frédéric Encel.
“There is the desire to create a diplomatic shock favorable to the Palestinian Authority in the context of the conflict in Gaza.”
Frédéric Encelat franceinfo
“But on the ground, it has no value”, continues the researcher. He recalls that France and the United Kingdom abstained in 2011 on the same question, “because statutorily, they can only recognize States which have sovereignty over a territory.”
To be admitted to the UN, some researchers believe that defined borders and a territory administered by a single government would be necessary. There is currently “two distinct territorial entities – the Gaza Strip and the West Bank – with two distinct governances, the legal governance of the Palestinian Authority having been expelled manu militari from the Gaza Strip by Hamas in 2007”thus recalls in Le Figaro David Rigoulet-Roze, associate researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations.
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In this context, the Palestinian diplomatic offensive at the UN appears above all symbolic. “The Palestinian Authority of Mahmoud Abbas, which has completely disappeared from the picture in the face of the Islamization of the Palestinian question, is trying to exist. And this request appears as a way of trying to put itself back in the spotlight”analyzes Sébastien Boussois.