we explain to you the stakes of this election which pits Lula and Jair Bolsonaro against each other

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Will Brazil turn the page on populism? Brazilians are expected to go to the polls on Sunday, October 2, to elect their new president. Polling stations opened at 8 a.m. (1 p.m. Paris time). Eleven candidates are in the running, including the outgoing Jair Bolsonaro, who hopes to obtain a new four-year term. The far-right candidate faces an emblematic figure of the left, who has made his comeback in politics: the former head of state Lula da Silva.

The very popular candidate from the left has every chance, especially after the mandate of Jair Bolsonaro deemed catastrophic. But are the elections decided in advance? Franceinfo takes stock of this presidential election which promises to be eventful.

Who are the candidates running?

Brazil must decide between 11 candidates in the first round of the presidential election. Only four of them have more than 1% of voting intentions in the polls, including Jair Bolsonarothe ultra-conservative outgoing president, known for his polemical and violent statements, and elected by surprise in 2018, as well as Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, better known as Lula. President of Brazil from 2003 to 2010, the leftist of the Workers’ Party (PT) is acclaimed by part of the electorate for having lifted a large part of the population out of poverty. He had been imprisoned for corruption in 2018, before being cleared by justice. The two men, with radically opposed political projects, should, barring a huge surprise, qualify for the second round, according to opinion polls. Lula is credited with around 47% of voting intentions and Jair Bolsonaro with 33%.

Ciro Gomes, former minister of Lula and representative of the Democratic Labor Party (PDT), is also in the race but, for the moment, he does not seem to have succeeded in supplanting his mentor, peaking at 8% in the polls. “He never managed to recover Lula’s base, his political space is very small”, explains Frédéric Louault, co-director of the Center for the Study of the Americas at the Free University of Brussels. Simone Tebet, of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), is credited with 4% of voting intentions.

Who are the favourites?

Barring a last-minute surprise, as in 2018, Lula is the big favorite in this election. Largely ahead in the polls, he owes his popularity to the memory he left to his fellow citizens, according to Juliano Cortinhas, professor of international relations at the University of Brasilia. “Many remember his former government, which reduced inequality and gave opportunities to Brazilians. He already has a record he can rely on”he says.

For Frédéric Louault, the election is not over yet: “As we saw in 2018, there can still be surprises. Jair Bolsonaro came out of nowhere. He is going up a bit, especially since Lula is not as vehement as during the campaigns previous ones, it is extinct”. Juliano Cortinhas is more confident in the ability of the leftist to win in the second round scheduled for October 30. “Even if Lula has lost some ground in the polls, I think the useful vote will be very beneficial to him”he predicts.

How is Lula’s return perceived after his legal setbacks?

A large part of the population welcomes Lula’s candidacy, as evidenced by his lead in the opinion polls. “Lula left a golden decade memory for Brazilians. His successor, Dilma Roussef, is blamed for the economic crisis that followed her mandates”emphasizes Frederic Louault.

Part of the electorate, however, violently rejects Lula, in particular because of the numerous corruption cases that have affected his party. “The rejection of the PT became very violent at the time of the dismissal of Dilma Roussefnotes Frederic Louault. This resulted in an anti-Lula front and, one thing leading to another, Jair Bolsonaro instrumentalized this opposition to the left by simplifying it to the extreme and in a very violent way”. Result: Brazilian society is cut in two, “like the country’s football oppositions”.

Why Bolsonaro is so high in the polls despite his record ?

This popularity is not a surprise, as “his radicalized evangelical base continues to support him”explains Carolina Botelho, political scientist and researcher at the Rio Electoral Studies Laboratory. “His base is very committed to his re-election and is ready to do anything, including not respecting democracyabounds Frédéric Louault. All this is carried by very strong ideological divisions, in particular opposing visions of the family”.

However, the record of the ultra-conservative president is judged “catastrophic” by many observers. On a crusade against “leftist ideology”, I have r Bolsonaro piloted “a mandate to destroy what had been built since the return of democracy”estimated with AFP Gaspard Estradaspecialist in Latin America at Sciences Po. Laction of I have r Bolsonaro has notably resulted in a sharp increase in deforestation in the Amazon. His management of the Covid-19 pandemic, a disease he had described as “flu”resulted in more than 680,000 deaths and a complete embolism of the health system.

In economic matters, political scientist Frédéric Louault emphasizes “inconsistency” of the mandate of Jair Bolsonaro, past “of a neoliberal state” at “a redistributive state during the pandemic”. A policy that has “increased inequalities in Brazil, in recession for ten years, and made Brazilians poorer than five years ago”he adds.

What themes is this election campaign focusing on?

The debates mainly focus on the daily life of Brazilians. “It’s all about the state of the economy, inflation, unemployment and the death toll during the Covid-19 pandemic”explains political scientist Carolina Botelho. “Brazil’s economic health has deteriorated a lot over the past ten years and the situation has not improved despite Jair Bolsonaro’s promises when he was elected in 2018”, adds Frédéric Louault. A record that pushes the outgoing president to mainly campaign against the left, inveighing against his opponents to the extreme.

Respect for democracy is also at the heart of the debates, after four years when Jair Bolsonaro has constantly attacked the various Brazilian counter-powers. Lula even made it one of the axes of his campaign “with the question of the reconciliation of Brazilians among themselves”specifies Frédéric Louault.

What is the voting method?

As in France, the President of Brazil is elected by uninominal majority ballot in two rounds. If a candidate receives the absolute majority of votes in the first round, he is elected. If no one exceeds 50% of the votes, the two contenders who came first face each other in the second round. The one with the most votes is elected for four years.

To decide between them, Brazilians vote electronically. An electoral system decried for years by Jair Bolsonaro, who insists that it allows the results to be rigged. Already in the 2018 elections, which he won with 55% of the vote, the far-right candidate had denounced “frauds” without advancing evidence, ensuring that he could have been elected in the first round.

The NGO Freedom House, which assesses the level of democracy in countries, nevertheless assures that “research has shown that the adoption of the electronic voting system in 1996, overseen by the Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE), significantly reduces electoral fraud”. She sees Brazil as a country “free”giving it a score of 73/100. “The Brazilian electoral system is very secure”confirms the specialist in international relations Juliano Cortinhas.

Could Jair Bolsonaro refuse to recognize a possible defeat?

The question was posed several times to the outgoing president by journalists, without obtaining a clear answer. As explained by the American media Bloomberg, I have r Bolsonaro explained in August that he would respect the results “if the elections (are) clean and transparent”. “A few months ago, he even said that he saw only three possible outcomes in the elections: be re-elected, imprisoned or killed. Which shows that defeat is not part of his vocabulary.analyzes Frédéric Louault, which points to a risk of “delegitimization of elections”.

A possibility that worries observers. “I’m afraid it will push his violent supporters into the streets. Riots could last for days or weeks, the army could even be forced to intervene“dreads Juliano Cortinhas. A scenario that could happen even if Jair Bolsonaro recognized a potential defeat, judge Frédéric Louaultwhich fears a scenario similar to the assault on the Capitol by supporters of Donald Trump in the United States on January 6, 2021.

What should we expect from the legislative elections which will take place at the same time?

Several elections are held on October 2. Brazil must thus renew a third of its senators and all of its deputies. The next legislature could also be as fragmented as the previous one, no party being in the majority.

“It will give a very fragmented Chamber of Deputies and it could block everything. This is a problem for Lula, because even if he has experience and knows how to navigate between the different institutions, he risks disappointing people and not being able to do everything.”

Frédéric Louault, political scientist

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It remains to know the profile of the newly elected. Notably, a record number of Aboriginal candidates are running, according to the Guardian. Will the traditional parties manage to regain ground? “Probably not”Judge Frédéric Louault, who wonders about the ability of Jair Bolsonaro’s supporters, often novices in politics, to be re-elected. “I think we will have fewer anti-democracy elected officials this time”believes Carolina Botelho.

I didn’t have time to read everything, can you give me a summary?

Brazilians are called to ballot on October 2 for the first round of the presidential election. Eleven candidates are in the running, but only two of them are able to qualify for the second round, according to opinion polls: Lula, the former left-wing president, and Jair Bolsonaro, the outgoing extreme president. right. The electoral campaign was very largely focused on unemployment and inflation, while the country sank into a crisis, linked to Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine.

Lula, the big favorite to return to power according to the polls, is leading a timid campaign, on the theme of bringing Brazilians together and economic recovery. Jair Bolsonaro, despite a record deemed catastrophic and numerous attacks on democracy, enjoys the unwavering support of some of the country’s evangelists, who have rallied to his ultra-conservative policy. The outgoing president has also hinted that he might not recognize the results in the event of defeat, which worries observers, who fear a conflagration if this is the case. Legislative elections will take place the same day and could give birth to a split Parliament, like a very polarized country, which would further complicate the task of the future president.


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