How far will the tension rise between Mali and France? On Monday, January 31, the ruling military junta abruptly announced that it was expelling the French ambassador. Joël Meyer, posted in Bamako since October 2018, had “72 hours” to leave the country. France took “note” of this eviction and reminded “its commitment to the stabilization and development of the Sahel”. PFor the government spokesman, Gabriel Attal, this decision to dismiss the French ambassador “is a further step in the isolation of which [la junte] make proof”. This episode marks a new hardening of relations between Bamako and Paris, while France still has around 4,000 soldiers in the Sahel. Explanations.
A recently broken dialogue
Discussions with the Malian government are “made very difficult” currently, acknowledged government spokesman Gabriel Attal. The expulsion of the French ambassador acts as the response of the military junta to the recent remarks judged “hostile” of French officials against him. “This junta is illegitimate and is taking irresponsible measures”had thus declared the Minister of Foreign Affairs Jean-Yves Le Drian, on January 27, in reaction to the announcement of the repatriation, at the request of Bamako, of a hundred Danish soldiers who were to participate in the Takuba force.
On January 24, Mali demanded the withdrawal of these soldiers who had come to replace a Swedish contingent within the framework of the Tabuka force, affirming that their deployment was “intervened without his consent”. This grouping of nearly 800 elite French and European soldiers, led under the aegis of France, was created as part of the gradual disengagement of the French army in Mali. Denmark replied that it had received a “clear invitation” of the Malian regime, but the junta then reiterated its demand “insistently” on the night of January 26 to 27. The next day, the Danish government therefore repatriated its troops.
Beyond Jean-Yves Le Drian, this attitude of the Malian power was strongly criticized by Florence Parly, the Minister of the Armies, who had already accused the soldiers of multiplying the “Provocation”. EIn response, the spokesperson for the Malian government had asked him, in a colorful formula, to be quiet: “We also invite him – it’s advice – to make this sentence of Alfred de Vigny his own on the greatness of silence.”
Relationships that have deteriorated for a long time
The dissension between Bamako and Paris actually started a few months ago, while Mali is facing a deep security and political crisis. The bond of trust has deteriorated since the two military coups, which overthrew the Malian president Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta in August 2020, then allowed the leader of the junta, Assimi Goïta, to take the helm of the country in May 2021. Emmanuel Macron had denounced, at the time, “a coup within the unacceptable coup”.
Despite the pressure exerted on the Malian military to respect the democratic process, including severe economic sanctions imposed by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and although he had pledged a return to constitutional order through the organization of general elections in February 2022, Colonel Assimi Goïta intends to remain at the head of the country for at least five years.
Assimi Goïta does not hesitate to rely on a part of the population who, faced with the failure of the soldiers of Operation Barkhane and the Europeans of the Takuba force to put an end to the conflicts in the country, is increasingly suspicious of the French army. On January 14, he called on Malians to manifest by criticizing international sanctions against “illegitimate, illegal and inhuman character”. For him, ECOWAS allowed itself to be exploited by powers extra-regional. A way to directly target France andt turn your back on it with the establishment of a cooperation with Russia in order to restore security in the country.
For several weeks, France, as well as several Western countries, have been denouncing the possible deployment of Russian mercenaries from the Wagner company on Malian ground. Mali assures that it is a state-to-state partnership with Russia and believes that its strategy of rapprochement with Russia is called into question.
The French presence in Mali threatened
The recent eviction of the French Ambassador revives the debate on the change in military strategy in Mali initiated in recent months. Shortly after the inauguration of Assimi Goïta as transitional president, Emmanuel Macron had indeed announced a reduction in the French military presence in the Sahel, after nine years of anti-jihadist struggle, in particular via the anti-jihadist operation Barkhane.
The government started the evacuation of several bases located in the north of the country while continuing to ensure the fight against terrorist groups present in the Sahel, by involving European partners within the Takuba force. “When we fight against terrorism on the spot, with success, with terrorist leaders who have been neutralized by our armies in recent years, we also protect our country, we also protect the French and therefore we must continue to do so.noted government spokesman Gabriel Attal on Tuesday on franceinfo.
But the diplomatic incident with the French ambassador forced the government to act more quickly. According to Gabriel Attal, France should decide “by mid-February” to decide on the future of its military presence in Mali. In the midst of the French presidency of the European Union and three months before the presidential election, a forced withdrawal from Mali – where 48 French soldiers died (53 in the Sahel) – would constitute a bitter setback. But the junta’s repeated hindrances make this scenario increasingly difficult to avoid, according to many observers.
The disengagement of the French soldiers would take very long months, according to the staff. The relocation of Takuba, it is not possible in its current form, neither in Niger, which does not wish to host this task force, source close to the file, nor in Burkina Faso, which has just experienced a coup d’etat . The vacuum left by the troops would not fail to benefit the jihadist groups present in the region and affiliated with Al-Qaeda or the Islamic State.