One o’clock “in the face of crises”. Questioned on Wednesday October 12 in “L’Evénement” by journalist Caroline Roux, Emmanuel Macron detailed, in length, France’s position on various international issues, nearly six months after his re-election at the Elysée and two weeks before a new interview on France 2 which will be devoted to domestic politics.
>> War in Ukraine, fuel shortage, demonstrations in Iran … What to remember from the interview with Emmanuel Macron in “L’Evénement” on France 2
Does France provide major support to Ukraine? Are we dependent on hydrocarbons exported from authoritarian countries? Can the recession be avoided? In the new public service political program, the head of state answered many questions and made a series of statements. Franceinfo has decoded seven of them, from deliveries of military equipment to kyiv to superprofits and Azerbaijani gas.
1On deliveries of Caesar guns to Ukraine
At the start of the interview, Emmanuel Macron returned to military aid to kyiv. According to the President of the Republic, France has already delivered “18” Caesar guns to Ukraine. This represents more than a quarter of the 76 howitzers available to the French army. He also reiterated his intention to provide more.
Is it possible to increase these deliveries? According General Oliver Kempfassociate researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research, France “can’t go beyond” what she has already taken from her own army. The path favored by the president is now to take “six guns” of an order for 12 howitzers for Denmark.
2On dependence on Russian gas
“Europe has been too dependent on Russian gas (…) around 40% of the gas we bought came from Russia, today, as I speak to you, it’s 7.5%”says Emmanuel Macron.
In 2021, long before Russia invaded Ukraine, the European Union imported around 45% of its natural gas from Russia, the European Commission itself acknowledged. In the first week of October, the EU (and the UK) only imported around 7% of its gas from Russia, according to data from economics think tank Bruegel.
As for France, 17% of the gas it imported came from Russia in 2020, according to figures from the Ministry of Ecological Transition. At the beginning of September, Minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher declared that thanks to the diversification of imports, France was no longer dependent on Russian gas for more than 9%.
3On the reform of the European electricity market
On the issue of the energy crisis, the Head of State mentioned the reform of the European electricity market which he defends. Emmanuel Macron claims to have obtained “a profound change in the electricity market which will allow us to have several electricity prices and for us, French people, to have an electricity price which will no longer depend on the price of gas”.
At present, on the European electricity market, it is the cost price of the last source of production mobilized to balance supply and demand, generally gas-fired power stations, which determines the price imposed on all operators. At the moment, these are gas-fired power plants, which are in great demand to compensate for the shutdowns of our reactors. Result: electricity is paid at a price inflated by the gas crisis. A system criticized by several European countries, including France.
On October 5, the President of the European Commission, Ursula Von der Leyen, said to herself “ready to discuss a cap on the price of gas used to produce electricity”. What would constitute “a first step towards a structural reform of the electricity market” European.
This mechanism, already applied in Spain and Portugal and supported by France, still arouses the hostility of countries reluctant to state intervention in the markets, including Germany. The Commission’s proposals will be examined at a summit of heads of state and government on 20 and 21 October in Brussels. They will then be discussed at a new meeting of the ministers concerned on October 25 in Luxembourg, before their possible adoption at an extraordinary ministerial meeting in November. The debates to achieve a profound change promise to be long.
4On gas imports from Azerbaijan
The President of the Republic was questioned about the conflict between Azerbaijan to Armenia. “France does not import gas from Azerbaijan”, says the head of state. Remarks confirmed by the Ministry of Ecological Transition which declares, requested by TF1 mid-Septemberthat“to his knowledge” no imports are made from Azerbaijan, the gas delivered providing “uniquely” “eastern Europe, due to its geographical location”. The country does not appear in the list of the main gas suppliers listed by the ministry.
Before the war in Ukraine, 36% of French imports of natural gas came from Norway, France’s main supplier, ahead of Russia (17%), Algeria (8%), the Netherlands (8%) , Nigeria (7%) and Qatar (2%), according to 2020 data from the Ministry of Ecological Transition.
5On economic growth
Emmanuel Macron believes that in France, “we are resisting the crisis better than our neighbors” economy, aggravated by the war in Ukraine. “Look at the figures, the recession will be there for many of our neighbours; we will hold out next year”, he assures.
What do the projections say? Germany expects 0.4% recession in 2023. These forecasts confirm the estimates of the International Monetary Fund, which predicts that the largest European economy will fall into recession in 2023 (-0.3%). The IMF also anticipates a decline in the Italian economy (-0.2%).
France actually seems to be doing better: the IMF forecasts growth up by 0.7% next year. But it is not immune to the risk of recession either. The Bank of France does not exclude a “limited and temporary recession” of “two or three quarters of decline in GDP around winter 2022-23”. However, this projection remains “surrounded by very large uncertainties”.
6On fuel shortages
Emmanuel Macron spoke about the strike in refineries which leads to fuel shortages at the pump. The President of the Republic estimated that a return to normal supply to service stations could be possible “in the course of the coming week”. Either in seven to ten days, according to several government sources contacted by the political service of France Télévisions.
In case of lifting of “blocking points”TotalEnergies’ Director of Refining Europe, Jean-Marc Durand, speaking on BFM TV Monday, did indeed believe that it would be necessary to count “a big week” to return to a normal rhythm of gasoline deliveries.
Wednesday evening, however, no release of the refineries had been announced by the unions. A interprofessional strike in France is moreover provided for by the CGT “for wages” and versus “requisitions” are fuel depots decreed Tuesday by the government
7On the taxation of superprofits
In the midst of a debate on the taxation of superprofits, Emmanuel Macron declared that he had put in place not a “taxation” but “a contribution” from “profits made by players in the sector whose production costs have nothing to do with soaring prices”.
The President of the Republic refers to an amendment to the 2023 draft budget tabled on October 7 by members of the majority, aimed at establishing an exceptional contribution on the surplus profits of the oil industries. This contribution, up to 33%, will affect companies whose results will exceed the average of the last four years by 20%.