“We can expect rights to be well below those of 2018,” estimates Pierre Maes, sports TV rights consultant.

The start of a new soap opera. The call for tenders for Ligue 1 TV broadcasting rights, for the period 2024-2029, for the French market, was launched on Tuesday October 12. Two lots are offered for a period of five years, instead of four. The first says “premium”is made up of the three flagship matches (choice 1, 2 and 4) of each day of the championship, the second offers the other six matches. Prime Video and Canal+ currently hold the rights, but the cards could be redistributed by the evening of October 16, the closing date of the call for tenders. Pierre Maes, author of the book The football TV rights business – Investigation into an explosive bubble and former manager of sports rights for Canal + Belgium answered questions from franceinfo: sport.

Which broadcasters are candidates for this call for tenders?

Pierre Maes: In order of probability, we have Canal+, BeIN Sports, Amazon and DAZN. Some also talk about Apple TV+. The Eurosport Discovery group seems to have thrown in the towel on ambitious rights purchases, just like RMC Sport, which after the rather flamboyant period of the 2010s, put its ambitions in this regard on the shelf.

Why are there only two batches this year?

I think it’s a good decision, we are moving towards simplification. These somewhat convoluted constructions of half lots “premium”, it can work when there is a lot of competition, the players will be happy even with average prizes. Today the competition is not there, the league has become aware of this and has created simpler prizes, especially with the one that is undoubtedly premium (choice 1, 2 and 4).

Has the value of Ligue 1 decreased since 2018?

It is not so much the intrinsic value of Ligue 1 that has decreased. The main factor which causes TV rights to increase or not is 95% competition between operators to acquire the rights. In 2018, we had good competition thanks to the unexpected arrival of Mediapro, not anymore. This is why we can expect TV rights to be well below those of 2018.

Can the departure of stars like Messi, Neymar and potentially Kylian Mbappé at the end of his contract in 2024 have consequences on the amount?

Yes but it remains minor, we are in the 5% that remains to determine the price. It certainly has an influence but it’s more about prestige. It’s not the number one factor. For the general public this seems to be an important element but in reality, in negotiations it is not.

Could the Mediapro affair have consequences on this call for tenders?

With Mediapro, we were at more than 1.2 billion euros, this year the ambitions are already lower than that level. Reaching a billion, I’m not sure it’s possible. If DAZN wins a prize, I think there will be very careful attention to the level of payment and its financial security. He is an actor with a good position but with six billion cumulative losses. It’s gigantic.

Can Canal+ and DAZN team up to take it all?

I don’t think Canal+ needs to join forces. Canal+ will make an offer on lot number 1 and will let the others manage on the second. There is no need for them to form an alliance in advance. If DAZN obtains the second batch, Canal+ subscribers will have access to it for an additional fee, which will be the subscription to DAZN.

“Canal+ is in a comfortable position, we can almost speak of a monopoly. They have worked to be in this position, it is not a gift from heaven.”

Pierre Maes, sports TV rights consultant

at franceinfo: sport

Negotiating rights for five years instead of four, what difference does that make?

This shows that the balance of power has shifted towards the broadcasters. Already, four years in France was quite unusual: in the other four major European championships, it’s three years. The leagues were very happy to return to the market every three years to put their rights up for sale by call for tenders, because the competition was increasing, so were the prices and every three years, it was a divine surprise. All that has changed. Consequently, the leagues are proposing new ideas including that of extending the cycles to five years, to potentially allow new entrants to have more time to make a profit.

How will the negotiations go until October 16?

If the offers are satisfactory for LFP Media, it will be submitted to the clubs and they will decide. What is most likely is that the offers will not be satisfactory. In this case, the leagues sometimes set a reserve price, that is to say a price below which they will not allocate the rights. So far, I haven’t seen anything in this regard, but I’m sure there already is one. The choice will therefore be up to the league to do a second round. I don’t think she will so she will have to move on to over-the-counter negotiations with those who have made an offer. This is exactly what is happening right now in Italy. They launched a call for tenders which proved unsuccessful, below the League’s expectations. Since then, they have been in over-the-counter negotiations for several months with DAZN and Sky Italia.