Faced with the Covid-19 pandemic, “we have to remain cautious, but I think we can be reasonably optimistic”explained Yazdan Yazdanpanah, head of the infectious diseases department at Bichat hospital in Paris and member of the Scientific Council, Friday March 25 on franceinfo. “There will be an increase in the number of cases but we will not be at the level of January and December.”, he pointed out.
franceinfo: were the health restrictions lifted too soon?
Yazdan Yazdanpanah: IYou have to know that there is always uncertainty. We are never really 100% sure of the decisions made. What’s been going on for two or three weeks? We have an increase in the number of infections which have exceeded 100,000 cases per day with, now, an incidence which is more than 1,000 per 100,000 inhabitants. At the same time, on the other hand, we must see that hospitalizations, for the moment, remain low. Even if last week, we had a 7% increase in hospitalizations.
We are faced with a variant that is no longer exactly the same, the BA.2. It is a sub-variant of Omicron which is a little more transmissible than the BA.1 which we had in January-December, but which is not more severe. According to the models, we will have an increase in the number of cases. But we will not be at the level of January or previous waves. You always have to be careful, but given the hospitalizations, given the models and what is happening in other countries, like Denmark which was ahead of us, apparently there is a drop in the number of cases. So, you have to be careful. We have to watch, but I think we can be reasonably optimistic.
The school remains the weak link?
Children under 12, in France in particular, are not vaccinated. It’s 10%. Between 5 and 12 years old is really where the weak link is. We are in a period where things are circulating. There are recommendations, not an obligation, to put on masks. I don’t find that completely absurd. I think that there is also a responsibility of people, individuals and when we are in contact, we can put on the mask, that seems logical. The opinion of the Scientific Council last week is for the empowerment of people. Vulnerable people put on masks, be careful, don’t forget everything we’ve learned for two years.
Should we continue to isolate ourselves when we are positive?
I think we must continue when we are really sick to isolate ourselves to avoid transmitting the disease to others. Now, we have reduced the periods of isolation. We said that we could do a test after five days and if it’s negative come back. But despite everything, we continue to isolate ourselves. And don’t forget that currently, there is also an increase in the flu epidemic.
What will summer be like?
We still have 80% of the population who are vaccinated today. 30 to 40% of people have already had the Covid. So there is an immunity that has set in that controls things. That’s why we think it’s not going to go up too much and it’s going to go down. Besides, it’s going to be warmer and the virus doesn’t like it. We will live outside, etc. So we can think that the summer, except surprise, will be quite calm on the Covid front.