Should Justin Trudeau take a cue from Joe Biden?
In the United States, in less time than it takes to shout “Joe Biden hang up his skates”, the entrance of Kamala Harris has given an electroshock to the Democratic Party.
It is clear that the change has been beneficial, at least in the short term, for the political party. Enthusiasm is back… and so is money. More than $200 million was raised in the space of a week, 68% of which came from new donors.1.
Enough to give ideas to some liberals on this side of the border…
But could replacing Justin Trudeau really change the dynamics ahead of the next election? I asked four observers of the federal political scene. Their answers shed some light on what’s coming next.
Daniel Béland, director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada, believes that the Harris phenomenon is likely to “give additional ammunition” to those who dream of a future without Justin Trudeau.
“I don’t know if it’s really going to have an impact on the internal deliberations of the Liberal Party,” he said. “But if Kamala Harris continues to do well – we’ve seen it in terms of fundraising and the number of volunteers, which has multiplied – it’s certain that it could serve as an example to the Liberals who want to get rid of Trudeau, on a rhetorical level, to say: look, we need someone different, that could change the course of the race.”
These Liberals have been increasing in number since late June, following the party’s failure in the Toronto–St. Paul’s by-election.
After this bitter setback, former Liberal cabinet minister Catherine McKenna shared her thoughts. “The Prime Minister can be proud of his legacy, but it’s time for new ideas, new energy and a new leader. The stakes in this election are too high, particularly when it comes to the economy and the climate,” she said.
This sums up, in my opinion, the feelings of those who are urging Justin Trudeau to leave his post (and there could be more of them after the by-elections that have just been announced for September 16 if the Liberals lose more feathers).
But could a new leader really revive the Liberals? Valérie-Anne Mahéo, holder of the Research Chair on Democracy and Parliamentary Institutions at Université Laval, has doubts.
“I think it’s not necessarily the central element, but a more peripheral element. There are deeper issues for the Liberal Party than Justin Trudeau’s leadership.”
In the United States, Kamala Harris’ party has been in the White House for less than four years. In Canada, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have been in power for almost nine years.
Being in power for so long has created a sense of wear and tear. Mistakes have been made. And the context has changed. The party must adjust, in its program, in its actions, to issues that are not the same as in 2015. To the challenges of immigration, for example.
Valérie-Anne Mahéo, assistant professor at Laval University
The other problem that is very difficult to address is the desire for change among the Canadian population. “After three terms, voters generally want to see an alternation in government.”
“It’s a bit like there’s a psychological period in Canada of eight to ten years after which people say: your time is up! I think that’s the main issue that Justin Trudeau has to deal with,” adds Nik Nanos, of the polling firm Nanos Research.
So, the pollster thinks that above all, Justin Trudeau’s fate is in the hands of… Pierre Poilievre.
PHOTO CHRISTINNE MUSCHI, THE CANADIAN PRESS
The only hope for Justin Trudeau to stay in power is if Pierre Poilievre makes a blunder, according to pollster Nik Nanos.
“In my experience, there is nothing he can do to correct his numbers except hope that Pierre Poilievre makes a mistake.”
But if that doesn’t happen in the medium term, “the best strategy for the Liberals would be to try something new, to change the leader,” he said.
His remarks come with a warning, however. Under current circumstances, “there is no guarantee” that it will be enough to secure the Liberals a fourth mandate.
I was left to ask him the million-dollar question: If liberals were to follow the Democrats and change candidates, who would be more likely to revive the party?
For him, the answer is one word: Quebec.
“One of the key questions would be which of the potential leaders can do the best in Quebec to keep the seats and get good results,” he says. In light of this observation, he cites two names: Dominic LeBlanc and François-Philippe Champagne.
PHOTO OLIVIER JEAN, LA PRESSE ARCHIVES
In order, Liberal ministers François-Philippe Champagne, Pablo Rodriguez and Dominic LeBlanc. The first and last are considered by pollster Nik Nanos as potential successors to Justin Trudeau.
I got a slightly different take from Alex Marland, the Jarislowsky Chair in Trust and Political Leadership at Acadia University in Nova Scotia.
He said that regardless of the results Kamala Harris obtains in the United States, “it seems pretty clear that we’re probably going to learn that Trudeau is going to resign” by the next federal election.
It is mainly because he is concerned about his legacy that Justin Trudeau will throw in the towel, thinks the professor.
A government leader cares about his legacy. So it doesn’t make sense for him to want to be known as the person who led his party to a crushing defeat.
Alex Marland, Acadia University professor
Justin Trudeau has a choice, says the expert.
He may leave his mark on history as the politician who “resurrected his party from the dead in 2015” and then won two more (minority) mandates.
Or…
He could become the politician “who led the party to a major defeat in the 2025 elections.”
“I don’t see why he would do that,” he said of the second option.
There is, it is true, enough here to convince Justin Trudeau to take Joe Biden’s example and bow out.
1. Read the article “Kamala Harris campaign raises $200 million in one week”
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