“In 2050, demographers’ projections predict one human in four in Africa and in 2100, more than one human in three”, explains Gilles Pison, professor emeritus at the National Museum of Natural History and adviser to the management of the National Institute for Demographic Studies, Tuesday, November 15 on franceinfo. While we are 8 billion inhabitants on earth, the 10 billion mark should be crossed by 2100, according to United Nations forecasts. The planet “is on track to achieve zero population growth before the end of the century”, assures the author of the “Atlas of the world population” published by Otherwise editions.
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franceinfo: The majority of births take place on which continent today?
Gilles Pison: Today, half of births occur in Asia, a third in Africa, and the remaining sixth is shared between Europe, North America and South America. In Oceania, there are less than 1% of world births.
Statistically, the newborn who arrives on earth at the moment has every chance of being a little Chinese or a little Indian?
Between China and India, there is a big difference. It is estimated that this year, 24 million babies will be born in India, 10 million in China, and after 8 million in Nigeria and half as many, 4 million, in the European Union. There are slightly more boys than girls in births. It’s almost 50/50.
Has the birth rate gotten out of control?
Billions roll by, but the bulk of global population growth is behind us. We were a billion in 1800. The United Nations announces a figure around 10 billion in 2100, therefore a tenfold increase in humanity in three centuries. But the bulk of this increase is behind us since we are 8 billion and we still have a residual growth of 2 billion more between now and 2100. So, these 2 billion is important, but it is only a quarter more than today. We are on track to reach zero population growth before the end of the century.
Can the planet feed everyone?
It is illusory to think of being able to change the demographic curves in the short term within 10, 20, 30 years because of demographic inertia. Most women and men are having fewer and fewer children on the planet with an average of 2.3 children per woman worldwide. World fertility is decreasing year after year. There are still many births, twice as many deaths because the world’s population is young. It includes a significant proportion of young adults born in years when the birth rate was high and therefore, even if each of them has few children, today there are many births.
Should we still have children with climate change?
First, there are those who don’t want children because it’s expensive, it’s tiring, they’re constraints. There are some who still want some and even though they have some! But let them raise them in such a way that they have a sustainable way of life. Get on it right away. Reduce your greenhouse gas emissions. Change your lifestyles.
Collectively, we must change our ways of living in the countries of the North and in the countries of the South, where we must improve living conditions, but without that weighing more, and this without delay, while there is a deceleration of the growth that began 60 years ago.
Gilles Pison, demographerat franceinfo
And today, the world population continues to increase, but at an increasingly slow rate which will bring us to this maximum by the end of the cycle. Africa’s share of the global population will increase. In 2050, demographers’ projections announce one human in four in Africa and in 2100, more than one human in three.
What will the planet look like in 2100?
The population of the European continent will hardly have changed. In contrast, the population of Africa will have practically tripled. Today, Africa is home to 1.4 billion people. That’s one in six humans. In 2050, demographers’ projections announce one human in four in Africa and in 2100, more than one human in three. Africa’s share of the global population will increase. Asia has always counted for several thousand years, more than half of humanity. It hasn’t changed. Simply, its share will be around 50% of humanity at the end of the century because Africa’s share will have increased. The share of the population of Europe, North America, South America will fall mechanically, even if the population in absolute numbers will not necessarily fall.
What place will France have in the European landscape at the end of the century?
Then we will be one of the most populated countries in Europe as we already are. France is just behind Germany. Maybe France will have overtaken Germany, but that’s not sure. It is that the French population will be older demographically. It will include a greater proportion of elderly people because the lifespan is getting longer. But it is a phenomenon that affects other European countries and the whole planet. The world’s population will be a little larger tomorrow, but demographically older, it will include a higher proportion of elderly people.