Vladimir Putin has just announced the “partial mobilization” in Russia in a new speech on television. For Anna Colin Lebedev, lecturer in political science at Paris-Nanterre University, specialist in post-Soviet societies, interviewed on Wednesday September 21 on franceinfo, “we are indeed in something very new”. For her it is “of a reversal and not in the direction of pacification”. For its part, American diplomacy judges that this announcement by the Russian president is a “admission of failure of his invasion”.
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franceinfo: What should we see in Vladimir Putin’s new speech?
Anna Colin Lebedev: We are in something very new. It should be remembered that the independent Russian state, the successor to the Soviet Union, had never decreed mobilization until now. It had been something extremely theoretical and therefore it clearly marks a reversal and not a reversal in the direction of pacification.
Would the general mobilization have been a breach of the contract made with the Russian population?
In reality, there were several options which had been tested by the Russian authorities to increase the number of its fighters on the ground, and in particular the engagement of voluntary fighters which had clearly not worked. The Russians are not necessarily ready to commit themselves voluntarily to go and fight in Ukraine. General mobilization was a huge risk for the Russian state. But also general mobilization would mobilize a number of people that the army would not be able to train. Moreover, it is not certain that the announced objectives of 300,000 mobilized people will be easy to house, equip, clothe and train in the context of this war. In my opinion, it is already very ambitious.
“A general mobilization would have been suicidal, but this partial mobilization is a test. The greatest test actually possible of the solidity of Russian power.”
Anna Colin-Lebedev, Russia specialistat franceinfo
What perception, after seven months of war, does the Russian population have of this Ukrainian conflict?
Until now the Russian authorities have endeavored to minimize this war in the concerns of ordinary Russians, and in particular of urban Russians and big cities, with the idea that not much is happening. And the fact that we were part of a special military operation led by a professional army.
I would say that there is indeed a reversal of the image and the war will potentially arrive in the homes of many Russians. Not all Russians, of course. By specifying that the mobilization would concern those who have done their military service, we always type in the same category: people from rather the most modest social backgrounds, rather from the most remote regions of the country. In any case, not for the moment.