Jean de Gliniasty, research director at IRIS, former French ambassador to Russia from January 2009 to November 2013, explained Thursday January 20 on franceinfo that Russia and the United States were “in a phase of rising auctions” in “a long-term process” while Vladimir Putin amassed 100,000 men on the border with Ukraine. The former diplomat does not believe in a conflict, but does not exclude “an incident that degenerates”, sets off “by hotheads on both sides”.
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franceinfo: Are we really on the verge of a conflict between Russia and Ukraine?
Jean de Gliniasty: No. Joe Biden threatens retaliation. It’s the least he can do after he said he wouldn’t send troops to Ukraine. Rather, we are in a bidding phase during a negotiation process that began last week, which continues since Blinken, Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, is in Moscow to meet Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Minister, and so it’s a long-term process.
Is the 100,000 soldiers sent to the border a bluff?
It is not necessarily a bluff because there is a problem. When you put 100,000 men with material and equipment on the border, you can’t keep them for very long. And then, there is a difference between the current process of military concentration and that which we recorded in previous years.
“In previous years, we showed our big arms. There were maneuvers and then afterwards, we withdrew. There were also as many maneuvers on the NATO side as on the Russian side. This time, it’s a military concentration.”
Jean de Gliniasty, research director at IRISat franceinfo
That is to say that it is longer term and therefore there is indeed a heavier threat which weighs and which is at the mercy of the incidents.
Russia already occupies part of Ukraine, Crimea. Why is this an important territory for her?
Ukraine is something emotional. This is the baptism of Russia in 988, when Russia became Orthodox. Kiev was Russian from 1654. Vladimir Putin recently wrote an article in the New York Times to say that it is the same people, which is only partly true. But there is a new element, which is that now the Russians are afraid of the strengthening of Ukraine and think that time is against them. They would like security guarantees. The Russians, for the first time, put their concerns on paper. What is being prepared is a deal, security for Russia on the one hand, and a renunciation by Russia of its zone of influence in Ukraine. In their minds, having NATO on their border in Ukraine is not bearable. And they’ve been saying it for 10, 20 years. The first Russian white paper in 2010, said NATO in Ukraine, is a threat, a danger for Russia.
The spark that starts a war can happen?
It can happen. It can happen because there are hotheads on both sides. In the Russian political scene, there are people who consider that Putin was too weak in 2014 and that he should have eaten all of Ukraine at a time when he invaded Crimea. We are well aware that in Ukraine there are far-right groups who believe that only through war will Russia, that Ukraine will regain its territorial integrity, so there may be incidents that degenerate. It should not be excluded.