“In the short term, wheat prices will rise”, said Saturday, March 5 on franceinfo Jean-François Loiseau, president of Intercéreales. Grain prices have risen sharply since the start of the war in Ukraine.
franceinfo: What is the situation on the cereals market and in particular wheat?
Jean-Francois Loiseau: We are above 410 euros per ton of wheat. Before the war, a week ago, the price was 280 euros per ton. In the short term, prices will rise because we are in spring, Russia and Ukraine are two major wheat producers and above all wheat exporters to countries like the Maghreb, the Near and Middle East. There is tension because some of these countries have wheat needs and therefore we anticipate strong demand.
Risk of speculation in France?
No not at all. Farmers have already sold 90% of their campaign. The wheat is harvested in July and in December two-thirds or three-quarters are sold. There are a few tons left, but that’s not what makes the speculation, it’s the scarcity. Russia produces 90 million tons of wheat and exports about 45. France is 35 million tons produced and 10 million exported. There is fear among all buyers worldwide because Ukraine and Russia have taken on such a dimension over the past 20 years that certain countries around the Mediterranean and in Europe are dependent. It’s really the fear of missing out in the short and medium term.
Are international buyers scrambling for leftover inventory?
French stocks are requested for customers in France and Europe. Spain and Italy buy a lot of corn in Ukraine and the difficulty we have today is that no boat comes out of the Black Sea. So, Russia manages, in addition to this war, the rise in the price of wheat and the famine in a few months in certain countries.
Will things be put in place to help French breeders?
We are going to set up solidarity mechanisms between our sectors. In the short term, we are going to cultivate the fallow land. It’s important to be able to cultivate as much as possible. We must rearm agriculture and agri-food in France and in Europe. We must, in a spirit of lower chemicals and CO2, produce much more in the agricultural chain.