While the city of Moscow was targeted on Tuesday by a drone attack, Michel Goya, former colonel of the Marine troops, believes that “the damage is very limited” and that for the Ukrainians, “it was essentially a question of marking the spirits”.
“We are clearly in the preparation phase” of the Ukrainian offensive, said Tuesday May 30 on franceinfo Michel Goya, former colonel of the Marine troops, military historian, and co-author with Jean Lopez of The Bear and the Foxpublished by Editions Perrin, while an unprecedented drone attack hit Moscow and its region on Tuesday, May 30, when kyiv suffered a new wave of deadly strikes.
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Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of trying to “terrify” Russians. “The damage is very limited”recalls Michel Goya, with “only a few injured”. But the interest of the attack is “other”. “It is very clearly a psychological attack”assures the former soldier.
franceinfo: In your opinion, what is the interest of this type of attack on the part of the Ukrainians?
Michael Goya: The drone models that were seen in this attack in the skies of Moscow are Ukrainian drones that have a range that is sufficient to leave from Ukraine. The damage is very limited. These drones don’t have the ability to do huge damage, especially when they’re thrown at a great distance, where you reduce the explosive charge to put in more fuel, to be able to go further. These attacks officially caused only a few injuries. But their interest was quite different. It was essentially about making an impression. These attacks took place, in particular in the district of Novo-Ogariovo. It is the residential area of the Russian elite. This is where, coincidentally, Vladimir Putin had a residence. And the drones that were destroyed were all around this residence. So it is very clearly a psychological attack (to say) “We Ukrainians too can hit cities like you do in Russia. And look at your defense is not able to prevent that. Your leaders, your army is not able to prevent that”.
Why are the Ukrainians launching these attacks when the United States does not support them?
It’s true, they don’t support, but they didn’t condemn either. It should be noted that they are also sensitive to the fact that the Ukrainians do not use specific equipment provided by Western countries. There, Ukrainian equipment is systematically used to carry out these attacks. The Americans are very reluctant to do this kind of thing because they are afraid of an escalation, afraid of giving Russia a pretext to go further, to mobilize the nation.
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From a Ukrainian point of view, there is a small operational aspect. That is to say, by attacking the interior of the territory by drones or by ground raids, one can draw the Russian defenses inside rather than being on the front line, so as to weaken this front line. But above all, when you yourself have been attacked on your territory for months, the temptation is extremely strong, if you have the possibility, to retaliate, to give change, to give the Russians a taste of the vodka that they serve Ukrainians. It’s human. The risk is to fall into an escalating spiral. And if we have the means, if we start to have more powerful missiles, to strike not military targets but also civilian targets. And that relieves the Ukrainians. But it is also dangerous because it feeds the Russian discourse of aggression. And it can have the opposite effect of provoking a Russian mobilization or tightening behind Vladimir Putin.
Are all these attacks, on one side or the other, the beginnings of the announced Ukrainian offensive?
These attacks on both sides could be enough in themselves. But very clearly, they are also part of this preparation for more important things. And obviously, it’s this Ukrainian offensive. On the Russian side, there has been an increase in missile attacks this month. But missile attacks, there are less and less, because the Russians have exhausted their stocks. And there they strike according to what they produce. It’s quite small. They mainly attack with Iranian drones. But with drones, in reality we don’t do a lot of damage. This is not what can have a decisive impact. But it keeps the pressure on. It also forces the Ukrainians to withdraw part of their forces from their air defense system to try to counter them, to defend the cities. It is so much less that is on the forehead. And then in general, it can disrupt the preparations for this offensive. We are clearly in the preparation phase before D-Day.