The 19the Francophonie Summit will open in France in a few days. It will bring together the 88 states and governments of the International Organization of the Francophonie (OIF) representing more than 1.5 billion people. “Create, innovate and undertake in French” will be the theme which will fuel the debates and resolutions concerning the French-speaking space, witness to significant transformations in recent decades.
Based on a definition that is close to common sense, French speakers bring together for us all people who master the French language to be able to use it to communicate (speak and/or understand), whatever the level or mastery of other skills (The French language in the world 2022Gallimard/OIF, p. 21). At the beginning of the 1960s, more than 90% of the world’s French speakers were in the North, particularly in Europe. We are then witnessing a significant geographical reconfiguration, to the point that in 2024 Africa will account for more than half of the 343 million French-speakers on the planet.
This shift in the tectonic plates of the French-speaking space leads to a modification of the linguistic regimes which characterize this whole. We see in fact that we are born less and less French-speaking, but that we become more and more so.
Driven initially by African demographic dynamics, the French language spread rapidly on this continent through teaching systems which are mainly based on colonial languages. French, which has become an African language according to many, is part of the daily lives of the populations of French-speaking Africa to varying degrees, with other languages of communication still very much alive in several countries: Wolof, Dioula, Lingala, Arabic and many others. . These varied contexts, it must be emphasized, encourage exchanges and borrowing, which means that the French-speaking space has become plural… and that can be heard!
African demography has its limits!
Since 1er October, the Demographic and Statistical Observatory of the Francophone Space (ODSEF) publishes, on its Francoscope platform, its new estimates of the number of French speakers in the world. These are based, on the one hand, on information obtained from various national and international statistical agencies with which the ODSEF maintains collaborations. They are based, on the other hand, on the most recent estimates of the world population produced by the United Nations and which were the subject of significant media coverage in July 2024, noting in particular that the demographic growth of the African continent was greater than expected. Fertility, although declining, appears to be declining less rapidly than expected, while emigration from the continent has reportedly declined with obstacles to international mobility, notably the closure of borders in the North during the COVID-19 pandemic. 19.
Given the central role that the African continent plays in the demolinguistic dynamics that interest us, these elements have repercussions on our new estimates of the number of French speakers with significant contrasts. Ivory Coast, for example, has experienced strong population growth, leading the United Nations to add three million more inhabitants than expected in 2024.
This Ivorian demographic growth is not unrelated to the economic growth following the end of the political-military crisis that this country experienced around twenty years ago. Thus, according to the latest Ivorian census, more than 72% of young people aged 15-17 say they know how to read and write in French, while this proportion is only 43% among their elders aged 30-34. In short, to the Ivorian demographic growth has been added a socio-economic context favorable to the education of young people.
A detailed examination of trends reveals, however, that while African demographic growth still greatly supports the increase in the number of French speakers on the planet, we observe a stagnation in the proportions of French speakers for several African countries whose education systems are weakened. Thus, in 2023-2024, one school in four remained closed in Burkina Faso according to UNICEF, due to persistent violence and insecurity in certain parts of the country.
In Mali, we are talking about half a million children whose schools are closed or non-functional. In Niger, it is estimated that more than 100,000 students are deprived of education. Possibly other, more profound reasons (social, cultural, political) can also explain this plateauing in the rates of French speakers.
Among more than 7,000 languages in the world, French ranks among the top five as a spoken language, language on the Internet, foreign language learned, etc. Although the African demographic surge has greatly supported the growth in the number of French speakers, it is not a sufficient condition. The growth of the French-speaking population will depend first and foremost on efficient education systems.
However, in the North as in the South, education is in crisis (teacher shortages, quality of training, dilapidated infrastructure, etc.). We can only hope that the 19the Francophonie Summit results in firm commitments in the field of education. The future of the French language is at stake.