The United States ruled on Wednesday that a compromise was “close” to save the Iranian nuclear agreement, after several positive signals, including the removal of one of the last obstacles and the release of two Iranian-British, even if caution remains in order in a tense geopolitical context.
“We are close to a possible agreement, but we are not there yet,” said US diplomatic spokesman Ned Price on Wednesday, calling for “urgent resolution” of the remaining differences. “We believe that the outstanding issues can be overcome,” he said.
“It’s off to a good start,” confirms a Western diplomat, while another source hopes for a conclusion “this week” in a case where deadlines have rarely been met.
At the beginning of March, we were already talking about the imminence of an agreement. But Friday, the talks in Vienna, which aim to save the 2015 pact intended to prevent Tehran from acquiring the atomic bomb, were abruptly suspended and the Iranian negotiator Ali Baghéri left empty-handed.
At issue: guarantees demanded by Russia so that the sanctions aimed at it because of the war in Ukraine do not concern its cooperation with Tehran.
Initially, the request related only to the nuclear field and seemed “reasonable”, but it was then widened, encountering the refusal of the Americans, explained a source close to the European Union, coordinator of the discussions. Finally, a visit to Moscow by the head of Iranian diplomacy unblocked things, with Russia saying it had received the necessary guarantees.
“It is now clear that the tactical move by Russia, which tried to use the agreement to breach the Western sanctions regime linked to Ukraine, did not work”, comments for the AFP Ali Vaez, from the International Crisis Group conflict prevention organization.
According to the EU, most of the text on nuclear power is ready and “we are at the stage of footnotes”.
“Two issues” to settle
Tehran, for its part, assures that there are only “two issues” left to settle with the United States, which left the agreement in 2018 under the presidency of Donald Trump. In response, the Islamic Republic gradually freed itself from the limits imposed on its nuclear programme.
The purpose of the talks — between Iran on one side; China, Russia, France, the United Kingdom, Germany and, indirectly, the United States on the other — is therefore to bring both parties back to their respective commitments.
But Tehran fears that Washington will once again break its word once President Joe Biden leaves. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian again insisted on Wednesday on this issue of an “economic guarantee” that would protect the country from international sanctions if history were to repeat itself.
The other contentious point concerns the Revolutionary Guards, an ideological army whose removal from the blacklist Iran is asking, according to a source familiar with the matter.
The negotiators cannot afford “to fail now”, wants to believe Mr. Vaez. “Too much time, energy and political capital have been invested, and the alternatives are much less attractive,” he says.
Hope
Another glimmer of hope, two Iranian-British men sentenced in Iran to prison on charges they have always denied were released on Wednesday.
“This is another element suggesting that the discussions”, which started in April 2021 in the Austrian capital, “are reaching the goal”, estimates in a note Henry Rome, at Eurasia Group.
While Iran is holding a dozen Western passport holders, the fate of the four American “hostages” also hangs in the balance. US envoy Robert Malley promised they would not be forgotten and Ned Price urged Tehran to make “urgent progress” towards their release.
“A new twist” is not excluded, however, warn experts and diplomats.
“Every hour that passes increases the risk that the conflict in Ukraine will complicate the discussions”, as it upsets the geopolitical order, underlines Daryl Kimball, of the Arms Control Association, questioned by AFP. However, in view of the development of the Iranian nuclear program, which now enriches uranium to a rate of 60%, close to the 90% necessary to make a bomb, “a rapid restoration of the 2015 pact is essential to avoid a another major crisis,” he adds.
On Wednesday, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN nuclear watchdog, issued a report giving new details on these technical advances, which continued even as talks intensified in Vienna.