The warmest winter that Canada has known in its history will end late Tuesday evening almost everywhere in the country, except on the East Coast where the spring equinox will occur early Wednesday morning.
Such a mild winter could have far-reaching effects on everything from influencing wildfires to riverbank erosion, climate scientists say. It could also offer a glimpse of what the winter season might look like in the not-so-distant future, unless steps are taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Senior climatologist at Environment Canada, David Phillips, calls the ending winter a lost season. Canada easily broke high temperature records this winter, said Mr. Phillips, who referenced data dating back to 1948.
During the so-called meteorological winter, the three-month period from December to February, Canada was 5.2°C warmer than average and the temperature was 1.1 degrees warmer than average. more than the previous record established in 2009-2010.
There have been bouts of extreme winter weather across Canada, from a deep freeze in January in the Prairies to massive snowfall in the Maritimes in February. But the warmer-than-normal and unusual weather was widely felt across Canada.
Some people probably appreciated the reductions in heating bills or the periodic mild days, but David Phillips says the record temperatures have upended Canada’s winter lifestyle. Winter festivals were canceled, ski resorts were closed, and flora and fauna emerged prematurely. Remote First Nations in Ontario and Manitoba that rely on ice roads have declared a state of emergency due to poor conditions.
Outdoor skating, often seen as a typical image of winter life in Canada, has also suffered. Ottawa’s iconic Rideau Canal skating rink was open for a few days this winter, after an unprecedented season-long closure the year before.
Experts say the factors responsible for this winter’s record heat are the El Niño weather phenomenon and human-caused climate change. Other related factors include record global ocean temperatures and residual heat from early 2023.
El Niño, a natural phenomenon that typically occurs every two to seven years, was strong this year, but not the strongest. The United Nations World Meteorological Organization said its peak was lower than at least two other El Niño winters, those of 1997 and 2015.
“El Niño contributed to these record temperatures, but heat-trapping greenhouse gases are unequivocally the main culprit,” according to WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo in an update released early of the month, referring to a series of consecutive monthly records for global temperatures.
Climate change is expected to increase winter temperatures more than any other season in Canada, according to David Phillips. In his opinion, if the world continues to emit greenhouse gases on a normal scale until 2050, his own community of Barrie, in central Ontario, could regularly experience winters as warm as this one. around 2065.
On the other hand, less snow on the ground during spring melt means less water available to irrigate farmland and replenish reservoirs. Melting snow also helps reduce the risk of wildfires.
Almost all of Western Canada, northern Ontario and several parts of northern Quebec were in the grip of drought at the end of February, according to a recent update from Environment Canada. Parts of southern Alberta and northern British Columbia reported conditions typically seen once in 50 years.
“Drought season, wildfire season — all of that is coming, but sometimes the seeds are sown in winter,” climatologist Phillips recalled.
Great Lakes ice cover, which helps protect the coastline from erosion during winter storms, also hit a historic low in February. Erosion concerns extend to coastal areas around the Gulf of St. Lawrence, including Prince Edward Island.
For his part, climatologist Damon Matthews of Concordia University points out that in Canada, “we need to get our act together and stop arguing, as a country, about whether this is a problem or a priority.” In his opinion, Canada is “not stepping up efforts as it should.”
He notes that the decline of outdoor skating is one consequence, but that much worse things will happen if the fight against climate change does not move forward.