The war with Russia is getting closer, especially in Europe. This does not mean that this war is inevitable. However, more than ever the old adage, si vis pacem para bellum, if you want peace prepare for war, has become essential to the definition of today’s policies. No one among the democracies wants war with Russia. But it seems increasingly clear that Russia is preparing for war, as are China, Iran and North Korea. The armament effort of these countries goes beyond the simple defense needs of their territory. The best solution for democracies is to raise the cost of war for these countries. The sums of money that this armament effort will cost could be invested elsewhere. But the avenues of diplomacy are running out. Dictatorships have become arrogant because they believe democracies are weak.
1) How is the position of European leaders changing?
On February 26, Emmanuel Macron caused a scandal by declaring that the sending of European soldiers to Ukrainian soil should not be excluded. He has been joined in recent days by leaders of Norway and Lithuania who agree with this. The Lithuanian Foreign Minister recalled that as a former Soviet republic, his country was well aware of the intentions of the Russians and that they coveted their former territories.
2) What economic measures are European leaders proposing?
European leaders have taken note of the US Congress’ reluctance to subsidize the war in Ukraine. They are deciding to finance the war to the tune of 0.2% of their GDP. They are also thinking of confiscating the usufruct of Russian capital which has been frozen in Europe since the start of the war. Furthermore, more and more voices are calling on European countries to transform into war economies.
- Listen to international politics expert Loïc Tassé on Benoit Dutrizac’s show via QUB :
3) What signs show that Russia is preparing for war with Europe?
Significant changes in tone in Russian leaders’ statements worry European leaders. For the first time yesterday, Russian authorities acknowledged that Russia was in a state of war, but that the fault lay, of course, with the “collective West” (a new term) which was sending weapons to Ukraine. The vice-president of the Duma also declared: “We don’t care about Macron, what he says.” “We are going to kill all the French soldiers.” He further claimed that the French prime minister, who is openly gay, was a pervert. Yesterday, Macron argued that the very undiplomatic statements of Russian leaders revealed the growing nervousness of the Kremlin.
4) What other signs indicate that Russia is preparing to take on Europe?
The confirmation of Vladimir Putin as head of Russia gives the latter more latitude. Several observers point out that compared to 2022, the Russian army will have at least a third more soldiers this summer.
5) Did the Russian authorities underestimate democracies?
Clearly yes, and they continue to do so. Putin’s war in Ukraine was only supposed to last a few days, according to plans. Europeans had to be divided on the question. In reality, the war in Ukraine cemented democracies and refocused their attention on the essential, namely the preservation of the rights of their citizens in the face of the tyranny of dictators from elsewhere.