Is Ukraine in danger of losing Western support in its fight against Russia? The Americans and several European governments are beginning to believe it.
Posted at 12:00 p.m.
A few days ago, members of the Biden administration deliberately revealed to the general public through the washington post the dissatisfaction of the president and his team with the attitude of President Volodymyr Zelensky regarding possible peace negotiations with the Russians. Intoxicated by a few military successes, the Ukrainian president has entered into an absolutist logic in which he rules out the idea of negotiating with Putin, sets conditions that are difficult to accept for opening a dialogue, and insults Westerners who do not help him enough. Biden was forced to tell him to stop this behavior.
By dint of spitting in the soup, Zelensky risks not being served any more, they say in Washington.
The pro-Ukraine consensus that has held since February 24 in the United States and Europe is fracturing. The result of Tuesday’s midterm elections in the United States confirms this. Regardless of which party wins the election, many pro-Trump candidates, those for whom the slogan “America First” means something in foreign policy, have won.
Indeed, Republicans quickly lost enthusiasm for Ukraine as gas and food prices, inflation and interest rates rose. The latest polls indicate that half of Republican voters think the government is doing too much for Ukraine.
More worrying for the Ukrainian government, the American political class is increasingly divided. In the House of Representatives, support is melting.
In April, only 10 out of 210 Republican representatives voted against aid to Ukraine. A month later, they were 57. The new pro-Trump representatives elected on Tuesday and who will take office in January will swell this opposition.
On the Democratic side, Biden can no longer count on the unanimity of the early days. A few weeks ago, some thirty Democratic representatives called for the opening of a diplomatic initiative to end the war. Under pressure from the pro-Ukrainian lobby, the group withdrew their petition, but the message was received five out of five at the White House. Only the Senate remains overwhelmingly pro-Ukraine, but the tide could well turn in view of the economic difficulties.
In Europe, the rise of far-right parties, in Italy and Sweden, after Hungary, Slovenia, Serbia, does not bode well despite Atlanticist and pro-Ukrainian rhetoric. And the traditional allies are beginning to feel “fatigue towards Ukraine”, according to a senior American official.
On the home front, the situation is catastrophic for Ukraine. Military victories cannot hide the fact that it is the Ukrainians who are suffering from this war, not the Russians.
All indicators are red. A few weeks ago, the World Bank drew up an initial inventory six months after the start of the war. Thus, Ukraine, already the poorest country in Europe after Moldova, is suffering enormously from the effects of the war, with a contraction of its GDP of 35% expected for 2022 (3% for Russia).
Despite Western aid, the situation will not improve, due to the destruction of industrial capacity, damage to agricultural land and a decline in the workforce. To this picture must be added the recent destruction of 30 to 40% of energy and health infrastructure, which deprives the population of electricity, heating and water.
The country has lost almost 20% of its territory, including the rich industrial and mining regions of the East and South, and some 14 million people out of a population of 37 million are refugees abroad or displaced within the country. . A population movement never seen since the end of the Second World War.
The Biden administration is less and less interested in Europe. She is obsessed with Asia, especially China. The war in Ukraine is a distraction. Washington is looking for a quick way out of the crisis, because it fears that the current bogging down of Ukrainians and Russians on the battlefield will prolong the war for several years. If that were to prove, such a scenario would involve risks whose effects could backfire on Ukraine. The deterioration of the global economy over the next few years could undermine Western solidarity with Kyiv. And the eventual entry of Donald Trump into the presidential race would not bode well for the Zelensky regime.
Emotions should not take the place of reasoning, diplomats remind. It is now up to the Ukrainian government to bring them under control and regain a sense of proportion in order to make a difficult decision.