Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will speak virtually to the American Congress on Tuesday, hoping to obtain the release of a new, highly debated, but crucial package for his country at war.
Washington is the largest provider of military aid to kyiv, having committed tens of billions of dollars since Russia’s invasion in February 2022.
But Democratic President Joe Biden’s promise to continue to financially support Ukraine is seriously in jeopardy, a disaster scenario for kyiv, whose disappointing counter-offensive has not brought the hoped-for territorial gains.
“Short of resources”
The American Congress, which has so far validated the gigantic envelopes of military, humanitarian and macroeconomic aid for kyiv, is made up of two chambers.
In the House of Representatives, dominated by conservatives, a handful of right-wing elected officials are calling for an immediate end to aid to kyiv.
In the Senate, with a Democratic majority, the Republican opposition is rather in favor of supporting Ukraine. It is before this chamber that the Ukrainian president speaks on Tuesday afternoon, by videoconference behind closed doors.
Ukrainian officials insist that they need more weapons to prevent Russian strikes from plunging millions of people into darkness this winter, like last year.
The White House itself sounded the alarm on Monday, assuring that American military aid to Ukraine could be cut sharply in the coming weeks, in the absence of a budget agreement with the Republican opposition.
“If Congress does not act, by the end of the year we will run out of resources to deliver more weapons and equipment to Ukraine and to supply material from U.S. military stockpiles,” wrote White House budget director Shalanda Young.
Aid to Israel
Aware that the sense of urgency has faded in Washington since the start of the war, President Biden asked on October 20 to combine his request for aid for Ukraine — more than 61 billion dollars — with a for Israel, a US ally, about 14 billion.
But the head of the conservative deputies is also calling for a clear tightening of migration policy in the face of the arrivals of migrants at the border with Mexico. What the Democrats, for the moment, refuse.
Speaker Mike Johnson hit the nail on the head on Tuesday, indicating in a letter to the White House that no new aid to Ukraine would be adopted without a “radical change” in American migration policy.
Anticipating the risk of weariness of the great American ally, President Zelensky went to Washington in person in September, meeting Joe Biden but also elected representatives of Congress with whom he had long discussions.
But his visit did not have the desired effect: mired in a series of internal crises which led to the dismissal of the previous speaker, Congress ultimately did not approve new funds for its offensive.
Will the current negotiations have a more favorable outcome?
“I remain rather confident in the fact that, despite the dramatization of the moment, we are rather good for 2024,” indicated a European source on Monday, not however excluding a “blockage”, given the very strong dissensions within the parliament of the world’s leading economic power.