Two years after the large-scale invasion of Ukraine, the record sanctions adopted by Western countries against the regime of Vladimir Putin have not silenced the Russian guns. US President Joe Biden is due to announce new sanctions this Friday in connection with the death of Alexeï Navalny.
They were designed to bring the Kremlin to its knees. So far, they have not been enough to stop the invasion and change the course of history that is being written.
Two years after the large-scale invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin shows no sign of laying down his arms. However, experts agree that the rounds of sanctions adopted against the regime and billionaires close to the Kremlin were not timid measures.
What happened ?
“India and China continue to buy Russian oil,” summarizes Maria Popova, professor of political science at McGill University. That said, they pay less for it, since almost no one wants it other than them. »
Recent forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) call for growth of 2.6% for the Russian economy in 2024 – well above forecasts for Germany (0.2%), the United Kingdom (0.6%) ) and France (0.9%).
Ilya Yablokov, a specialist in Russian media and professor at the University of Sheffield in the United Kingdom, notes that a large part of the Russian population has been experiencing “their best years” for two years despite the sanctions.
“People are earning more money than before, there is a lot of investment because of the war, employment is doing well,” he says.
PHOTO PROVIDED BY THE WILSON CENTER
Ilya Yablokov, Russian media expert and professor at the University of Sheffield, UK
It’s not black and white, people are suffering in Russia. But for many poor citizens in disadvantaged regions, the situation has improved over the past two years.
Ilya Yablokov, University of Sheffield
Ekaterina Piskunova, lecturer in the political science department at the University of Montreal, notes that Russia has had time to improve its economic self-sufficiency since the invasion of Crimea in 2014, followed by the first Western sanctions.
“Russia today is sanctioned more than any other regime in history, even more than North Korea,” she said. But she adapted. »
Maria Popova, of McGill University, believes that one way to explain the strength of the economy in Russia is that imports banned on paper continue to flow into Russian territory.
“We know that imports that enter Russia by truck supposedly to go to Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan remain in Russia, in contravention of international sanctions,” she said. But it’s difficult to control. Even if they are not perfect, sanctions are necessary. »
300 billion frozen
The death of Alexei Navalny last week at the hands of the Russian government gave new impetus to an idea that has been circulating since the 2022 invasion: seizing the Russian central bank’s $300 billion held in the West and returning it to the ‘Ukraine.
This sum is frozen by sanctions in financial institutions in Belgium, France and the United States, in particular.
For Maria Popova, seizing the 300 billion would be the most effective move the West could make.
“This is money that Ukraine could use to obtain weapons and ammunition to defend itself,” she said. It could directly finance the war effort. »
As for the question of establishing a precedent, Mr.me Popova ranks in the camp of analysts who consider it desirable to establish this type of precedent – especially since the bar to be crossed is high.
PHOTO MARCO CAMPANOZZI, LA PRESSE ARCHIVES
Maria Popova, professor of political science at McGill University
If a country invades a neighboring country, kills tens of thousands of people for two years, is accused of genocide by the International Criminal Court [CPI] and shows no signs of wanting to stop, so setting a precedent can be a good thing. The number of countries that meet such criteria is not very high.
Maria Popova, professor of political science at McGill University
According to her, it would be more serious if the West used property rights to protect a regime that does not respect property rights on its own territory and militarily invades a neighboring country. “This is what sets a bad precedent,” she said.
Russia advantage?
Ekaterina Piskunova believes that in the short term, Russia is doing well. But in the medium or long term, its success is less certain.
“Hydrocarbon sales bring in less than before. And this sector represents a third of the Russian economy, so the government’s finances will be less good in a few years. Russia spends a lot on the war. Maybe it’s not sustainable in the long term,” she says.
The other weak point of the Russian economy is its lack of high-tech industry. “For now, China is a partner. But in the medium term, it is uncertain. »
A point of view shared by Ilya Yablokov. “In the short term, I am pessimistic, because Putin and his associates have understood that they are absolutely not threatened and can even increase their power despite the war. But I am optimistic because I don’t think Putin’s regime will be able to survive for another 70 years. »