Limited access to Western capital, targeted Russian banking institutions and elites, suspended infrastructure projects; the salvo of sanctions aimed at Russia since the beginning of its military operation in Ukraine has something to mark the spirits. But does it really work? More or less, warn experts.
Posted at 2:06 p.m.
For the professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Montreal and specialist in conflict resolution, Marie-Joelle Zahar, it is necessary to understand from the outset that international sanctions have “historically a relatively low rate of success” because they are rarely “universal”.
“In other words, it doesn’t come in a unified way, which means that often the countries targeted can find what they are deprived of through other suppliers. That’s probably the case in Russia right now,” she says.
In this case, M.me Zahar recalls that Vladimir Putin was careful to “seal a limitless strategic agreement with China” before invading Ukraine at the beginning of February, to ensure that his closest ally – who had become a key player in the conflict – “precisely blocks this system of universal sanctions”. “The usefulness of sanctions, for Canada for example, is above all to signal to our populations that we will not stand idly by. But basically, their impact is quite limited, ”reasoned the professor in passing.
Power above all
The director of the Center for Defense and Security Studies at the University of Manitoba, Andréa Charron, second. In his eyes, only a concerted response would really curb the ambitions of the Russian president. “Putin only understands power. It would take a unified response, including the United States, Europe, England, NATO, to cut all financial ties with Russia outright,” she said.
To have an impact, it would be necessary to seize all the money of the great oligarchs, the economic elites, in short, everything that can fuel military aggression.
Andrea Charron, professor at the University of Manitoba
Certainly, such a strong action will risk “disastrous consequences” for the Russian people and even for Western countries, “but the world order is at stake”, affirms the DD Wheelwright. “If we are not prepared to use force, then we have to use real sanctions,” she said. The teacher also points out that the United Nations General Assembly could invoke the “Union for the maintenance of peace” to apply “unilateral and strong” sanctions, as it did in the 1950s during the war. in Korea.
On Thursday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also announced that new Canadian sanctions “will target 62 individuals and entities, including members of the Russian elite and their families, as well as the Wagner Group and major Russian banks”. “We will also sanction members of the Russian Security Council, including the defense minister, the finance minister and the justice minister,” he said, saying that these retaliatory measures will be “far reaching”. , because they “will entail great costs for the Russian elites”. Shortly afterwards, in Washington, US President Joe Biden also announced that elites and four additional Russian banks will be sanctioned, while more than half of Russia’s technology imports will be cut. Mr. Biden intends to defend “every inch of NATO territory”, but will not send troops to Ukraine.
How far will Putin go?
What must also be considered, says the founder of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair in Strategic and Diplomatic Studies Charles-Philippe David, is that “Vladimir Putin will not let himself be impressed by anything currently”. “It’s a bit of the extraordinary observation of everyone at the moment: this man is not easily influenced, he has only one mission in mind. And he’s ready to take his country into the cellar to win. Ukraine, as we have known it, will no longer exist,” David said.
“There is still a series of penalties that can hurt, and that’s where you have to hit,” adds the specialist. For him, the “ultimate sanction” would be to ban Russian banks – as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky demanded on Thursday – from using the SWIFT messaging system, an essential cog in global finance. Mr Biden said the measure was only an “option” at this stage; it would amount to isolating Russia on the banking level. “That would be a first. It’s like saying to Canadians: you can no longer trade on international markets. And that’s not nothing,” adds Mr. David.
Another strong penalty, adds Mme Charron, would be to “put Russia on an air checklist.” “That would mean that everything that enters Russia is systematically checked, always asking the question: do we want it sent to him? In the long run, it can really hurt,” she says.
“The challenge with very severe sanctions, as we saw in South Africa during apartheid for example, is that they always generally end up hurting the population much more. It involves all sorts of ethical and moral questions that we also have to ask ourselves, ”concludes Ms.me Zahar.