A sign does not deceive. Kyiv and its Western allies are to organize a major summit on peace in Ukraine for the beginning of July. Invitations have been sent to all democratic states and, surprisingly, to all major countries of the South wishing to make their opinion known on the subject.
This is because, until very recently, the North was scandalized by the position of neutrality displayed by a large part of the countries of the South in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. And the moral lessons administered to the recalcitrant by Westerners yet so inclined to violate the rules when their interests are at stake have not changed this position, hence a reversal of strategy on the part of the North: listen.
In the aftermath of the Russian aggression of February last year, Westerners were astonished to note their inability to mobilize the entire international community against Russia. Votes in various UN bodies revealed that a quarter, if not half, of member states did not vote on resolutions condemning the invasion or calling for sanctions. And, more surprisingly, even those who voted yes were immediately quick to reaffirm their friendship with Russia and their refusal to adopt sanctions.
Gone are the days of the 1990-1991 Gulf War when the West succeeded in rallying the whole world against Iraq.
Since then, the rules of the international order have become dulled as the great powers have blithely violated them. Westerners bombed Serbia in 1999, Iraq in 2003 and Libya in 2011 by emancipating themselves or reinterpreting these rules; the Russians followed in Georgia in 2008 and in Ukraine in 2014 and 2022. This order is also shaken by the rise in power – and therefore the relative decline of the former great powers – of a dozen countries whose objective is to redefine the rules inherited from the post-war period. Today China, of course, but also India, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and others can no longer bear the diktats Westerners and know how to keep their distance from Russia. They want to play their own part and have greater means than 20 or 30 years ago when their dependence on the North was so strong. They speak of de-dollarization, of South-South trade, of flexible alliances, of multi-alignment, this concept which expresses the rejection of the new policy of the blocs that the United States tries to impose in its conflict with China.
President Zelensky understood that accusing these countries of the South of turning a blind eye to Russian aggression was useless. Ukraine was the loser in this game. Hence its recent tours of members of the Arab League and its meetings with leaders from the South during the G7. He hopes to draw from the next conference on peace in Ukraine the diplomatic and military support which he has lacked up to now.
The fault lines are deepening
Can he hope to collect them? Certainly, at the end of the conference there will be a beautiful family photo with the heads of state surrounding the Ukrainian president. But make no mistake: this photo will only look like the unit. The fault lines between the North and the South continue to deepen as Westerners refuse to dialogue with others in order to share power on this planet. For the South, the war in Ukraine is part of a quarrel between Russia and the West which should in no way eclipse the issues and demands of developing countries.
This position was again affirmed by the members of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) during the meeting of their foreign ministers a few days ago. The Indian, surrounded by his counterparts, warned the powers of the North: the world is multipolar, it is rebalancing, and the old methods cannot respond to new situations.
Are the Westerners ready to open the game, to respond to the aspirations of the South, to stop believing that they dominate everything from the G7? They still need to listen.
This is the message sent by Maurice Gourdault-Montagne, former adviser to Presidents Jacques Chirac, Nicolas Sarkozy, François Hollande and Emmanuel Macron, in a book whose title reflects the international situation in which we find ourselves: Others don’t think like us.
From his long diplomatic experience with its leaders, but also in India, China, Japan, Germany and elsewhere, he recalls the distinct character of peoples, their vision of the world, their ambitions, their values, and the need to take it into account in a world in full recomposition.
So, yes, peace in Ukraine, but not at the expense of a new vision of world order, of which security is only one aspect among others.
* Jocelyn Coulon has just published My France. Portraits and other considerations at Editions La Presse.