In meetings with Vladimir Putin that I have attended, he always wanted to give the impression that he was “the dominant man” in the room. With his arrogant air, he preferred to dodge questions with contempt for Canada, which for him was a country to be taken lightly.
Posted yesterday at 12:00 p.m.
Later and in private, Prime Minister Stephen Harper would even make fun of his techniques for dodging questions. Mr. Harper, however, had clearly identified it from his first meeting: Putin clearly represented a threat to the stability of Europe and the entire world.
After witnessing the collapse of the USSR and the humiliation of watching his country become a beggar on the international stage under the drunken and erratic leadership of Boris Yeltsin, Putin had given himself a clear mission at the start of his mandate: “Make Russia Great Again” and restore its status as a major world power.
In wanting to conquer Ukraine, Putin is using the same strategy as his hero, Peter the Great, who wanted to surround and protect Russia with a shield of satellite states against a potential invader from Europe.
This simple but effective protection was fundamental to Russia’s ability to fend off several invaders over the centuries, slowing advances and waiting for the Russian winter to inflict its ravages. Napoleon and Hitler were victims of this same strategy.
Putin already controls Belarus and part of the Caucasus. He only needs Ukraine and the Baltic countries to recreate the shield.
Coming soon
Despite the optimists, Putin has no intention of ceasing hostilities, as his fate is now tied to the success of his mission. His original plan of blitzkrieg was a failure, so the Russian armed forces are now continuing brutal warfare tactics used during the war in Chechnya and Georgia, aimed at annihilating and demoralizing the civilian population. The US intelligence community still believes that Russian military might will be victorious, but it is clear that the long-term occupation of Ukraine contains the seeds of its own destruction.
Even if Putin succeeds in conquering the territory militarily, the Ukrainians will still and always resist the invader. And each day of resistance represents a step closer to an eventual victory.
However, if the victory of the Ukrainians is assured, it may take years to be realized like that of the Afghan mujahideen during the disastrous intervention of the Russians in Afghanistan. The defeat of the Red Army in Afghanistan contributed greatly to the fall of the USSR and a similar fate awaits Putin.
A new world order
Although Canada is only a supporting player in the Ukrainian saga, it must continue to help the Ukrainians, by providing them with military equipment and information. Imposing a no-fly zone would no doubt help Ukraine, but the consequences for Canada, if it were to participate in this effort, could be disastrous, particularly because Russia has the capabilities to carry out cyberattacks that can cause enormous damage, for example forcing the interruption of Hydro-Québec transmission lines and damaging other critical infrastructures that could paralyze hospitals and cause billions of dollars in damage. It is this danger of cyberattacks that is deterring NATO from adopting a more aggressive stance in Ukraine.
The invasion of Ukraine also caused the displacement of two tectonic plates in geopolitics: firstly, Germany woke up from a long sleep, in which it believed that war in Europe only existed in the history books. The German Chancellor today said he wanted to significantly increase his military spending and end his country’s dependence on Russian natural gas, two indicators that Germany takes seriously its responsibilities as one of Europe’s leaders. Second, Russia is now, in practice, a subordinate state to China. The expulsion of Russia from the international financial system leaves it towed by a single ally that can ensure its survival (China) and thus confirms the autocratic Sino-Russian axis for years to come.
Faced with this new reality, Canada will have to forge a new identity in this more dangerous world. Putin had succeeded in charming several heads of state at the start of his career, such as Tony Blair and George W. Bush, but Stephen Harper immediately understood that he represented a danger to world stability. Canada’s future leaders will also have to adopt a more serious approach in this new world, because one thing is certain, the dogmas of the quiet past are very ill-suited for the stormy future.
* Former Senior Foreign Affairs and National Security Advisor to Stephen Harper and Senior Advisor to two Foreign Ministers