War in Ukraine | What are the consequences for climate action?

The war in Ukraine and its consequences on the energy supply of many nations could well lead to a further global increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. But its medium- and long-term effects are more difficult to predict. Update on possible consequences on the fight against climate change.

Eric-Pierre Champagne
The Press

Already collateral “victims”

Bulgaria announced on Friday the postponement of the closure of its coal-fired power plants. These were to be replaced by installations powered by natural gas, supplied by Russia. “We do not accept a transformation that will increase our dependence” on an energy source from a country “waging a war”, declared the Minister of Finance, Assen Vassilev. The dilemma is significant for this small country of almost 7 million inhabitants where 34% of electricity is provided by coal, while 77% of gas is delivered by the Russian giant Gazprom. The country’s only nuclear power plant also has Russian reactors powered by Russian fuel. It should be remembered that the Bulgarian government had pledged to completely withdraw from coal by 2040. The first coal-fired power plant closures were scheduled for 2026.

“A Fossil Fuel War”

For Svitlana Krakovska, Ukrainian scientist and member of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), this war represents a threat in the fight against climate change. In daily interview The Guardian, she said last Wednesday that she sees parallels between the two. “The burning of oil, gas and coal is causing warming and impacts that we have to adapt to. And Russia sells these resources and uses the money to buy weapons. Other countries are dependent on these fossil fuels, they are not free of them. This is a fossil fuel war. It is clear that we cannot continue to live like this, it will destroy our civilization. »

Europe and Russian fossil fuels

What will the European countries that are still largely dependent on Russian oil (48%) and gas (70%) exports do? The answer is not simple. But already, Germany has announced its intention to accelerate its transition to green energy in response to the Ukrainian conflict. And the transition can sometimes be quick. For example, in just two years, between 2019 and 2021, the Netherlands and Finland managed to reduce their gas consumption by 22% and 17% in favor of renewable energies. The war in Ukraine should not in principle slow down the energy transition, believes Louis Beaumier, executive director of the Trottier Energy Institute at Polytechnique Montreal. “What we can even hope for is that it will speed up the transition,” he says.

“Short-term suffering for long-term gains”

This is the title of research that has just been published by economists Maksym Chepeliev, Thomas Hertel and Dominique van der Mensbrugghe (Cutting Russia’s fossil fuel exports: Short-term pain for long-term gain). Their hypothesis is that it would be possible to get rid of Russian oil and gas with beneficial effects on the climate. In particular, they conclude that restrictions on Russian exports would have a modest cost for the European Union economy, but “which would result in significant environmental co-benefits through the reduction of CO2 emissions.₂ and air pollutants”.

Like in 1973?

Could the war in Ukraine leading to rising oil and gas prices lead to an oil shock like the one in 1973? This is the question posed by Louis Beaumier, of the Trottier Energy Institute. The crisis at the time had led to significant transformations due to the considerable increase in the price of oil and gasoline at the pump. The expert points out that many consumers then changed their habits. It was also from this time that new, smaller car models arrived on the market. An opinion that does not necessarily share Charles Séguin, professor in the department of economics at UQAM. “We will not relive 1973. There are also many more technological options than there were at the time [quand les prix du pétrole ont explosé]. »

Climate, winner or loser?

It is difficult for the moment to predict whether the effects of the war in Ukraine on the prices of fossil fuels will make it possible to accelerate the energy transition. Meanwhile, the bad news continues to pile up. The International Energy Agency announced last week that GHG emissions from the global energy sector increased by 6% in 2021 compared to the previous year. For his part, Professor Séguin believes that there will be no short-term impacts on the climate front. “If the conflict continues, OPEC [Organisation des pays exportateurs de pétrole] will react. It remains, in my opinion, a shock [la hausse de prix] short term. »

With Agence France-Presse