The United States is close to approving the shipment of M1 Abrams main battle tanks to Ukraine, US officials said on Tuesday. Germany should follow suit shortly.
The US decision could be announced as early as Wednesday, but delivery of the tanks is likely to take months. The number of tanks could be between 30 and 50, depending on the New York Times.
“The American decision will thus open the door to the Germans,” says Dominique Arel, professor at the University of Ottawa and holder of the Chair in Ukrainian Studies.
Last week, the UK confirmed the dispatch of Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine. Other Western countries, such as Poland and Finland, have said they are ready to follow suit by sending Leopard 2 tanks, provided they obtain permission from Germany.
As a manufacturer of Leopard 2 tanks, Germany has a say in the re-export of this type of offensive weapon.
Germany did not want to move forward without a parallel policy from the United States, so that it was a common front.
Dominique Arel, holder of the Chair in Ukrainian Studies at the University of Ottawa
As soon as the United States confirms its decision, Germany will accept Poland’s request to transfer Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, according to an official who spoke on condition of anonymity because the decision has not not yet made public.
Tuesday evening, two German media, the Spiegel and the NTV news channel, even assured that Chancellor Olaf Scholz would give the green light, probably this Wednesday. “Such deliveries will not bring anything good” to Russian-German relations, on the other hand reacted the spokesman of the Kremlin, Dmitry Peskov.
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The technological advantage
Leopard 2s and M1 Abrams, considered superior to Russian tanks, could have a major impact on the ground, Arel believes. “It’s not just the quantity sent that makes a difference, it’s also the quality. The Ukrainians would have the technological advantage,” he says.
Mr. Arel believes that the addition of these tanks could allow the Ukrainian army to launch its counter-offensive, “in particular by unblocking the southern front”.
However, it will take months to get the tanks to Ukraine and train Ukrainian forces in their use.
In recent years, the two battle tanks, substantially equivalent, have proven themselves. The Leopard 2 was used in Afghanistan and Kosovo, where it was very resistant, especially against explosive devices. About 2,000 of these tanks are distributed in a dozen countries, including Canada, which has 82. For its part, the M1 Abrams was used in Iraq and Egypt, among others.
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One hundred ?
The exact number of tanks that could be sent to Ukraine remains to be determined. “There are some who speak of a hundred,” says Mr. Arel.
Kyiv is asking its Western allies, whose military and financial support is crucial, for 300 battle tanks.
I don’t think we’re going to get to 300 this week. But already, if we start from scratch and actually go to a hundred, it would be a bad change on the ground.
Dominique Arel, holder of the Chair in Ukrainian Studies at the University of Ottawa
In recent weeks, international reluctance to send tanks to the front against the Russians has begun to fade. “What we can decode is that the Americans and the Europeans no longer think that it would create an escalation with Russia, such as the use of nuclear weapons or incursions into NATO territory,” explains Mr. Arel.
Until now, the United States had resisted the idea of supplying its own M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, citing the complex logistical and maintenance challenges of these high-tech vehicles.
With the Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and André Duchesne, The Press