War in Ukraine | The Russian invasion, an inspiration for Beijing?

Does Chinese President Xi Jinping, who describes the reintegration of Taiwan as a “historic mission” for his regime, risk taking inspiration from the Russian invasion of Ukraine to embark in turn on a high-level military adventure? risk?

Marc Thibodeau
The Press

The hypothesis has been repeatedly raised in recent weeks by analysts and the military, with some even raising the possibility that Beijing is trying to quickly go on the offensive to take advantage of the fact that the Russian initiative is attracting international attention. elsewhere.

A senior Canadian officer who testified recently before a parliamentary committee, Major General Mike Wright, said the military was “very concerned” about this scenario a few weeks ago.

Alarmist scenario?

Frédéric Lasserre, a specialist in Asia attached to Laval University, notes that these warnings are alarmist and neglect the important differences that exist between the two conflicts.

The scenario of a military invasion of Taiwan by Chinese troops is no more likely today “than it was two months ago”, judges the professor, who sees the conflict in Ukraine as a heist. short-term head for the Chinese authorities.

Beijing, which had developed close economic relations with Ukraine, is keen to maintain good relations with Moscow, but also seeks to avoid a marked deterioration in its ties with Europe and the United States that could harm its development projects.

“A kind of warning”

Kharis Templeman, a Stanford University professor who studies strained relations between China and Taiwan closely, believes that the Russian invasion lessens the likelihood of an attack from Beijing in the short term.

“It is a kind of warning” showing that it is not easy, even for an army with vastly superior resources to those of its adversary, to quickly take control of a country to establish a puppet government.

The thinking is made even more relevant for China by the fact, he says, that a possible assault on Taiwan would be by sea and would be significantly more militarily complex than the offensive in Ukraine.

Mr. Lasserre believes that the Russian military difficulties are not an indication of what would happen to the Chinese forces in Taiwan and therefore are not likely to affect Beijing’s analysis of the advisability of an assault on the island.

The economic weight of Taiwan

The fact that Kyiv did not benefit before the invasion from a military alliance providing it with direct external aid in the event of an attack represents, on the other hand, a major difference to be considered.

Although the United States does not formally recognize Taiwan as a country in its own right and maintains a “strategic ambiguity” on a possible Chinese attack, it is generally understood that Washington would intervene militarily in the event of an assault on the island, notes M Templeman.

Taiwan, he says, has a much greater economic importance than Ukraine for the United States, in particular because of the presence on its territory of the largest producer of semiconductors on the planet. It is also located on busy sea lanes, in a strategic location for the protection of other regional allies, including Japan.

The fear of punishment

The severe economic and financial sanctions imposed by Western countries in reaction to the Russian offensive are more likely to weigh in the thoughts of Xi Jinping and his entourage than Moscow’s military failures, notes Mr. Lasserre.

A recent report by the United States Institute for Peace notes that the exclusion of the SWIFT interbank exchange system imposed on Russia could have a “potentially devastating” impact for the Chinese economy if it were to s apply one day in Beijing.

However, China would be in a better position to counter possible sanctions since its economy remains closely linked to that of the United States and several Western countries and it retains control of a large fraction of the American debt, a tool that could allow him to retaliate in the event of an escalation, notes Mr. Lasserre.

Beijing, concludes the professor, is convinced more generally that “time is on its side” and that the growth of its economic and military power will ultimately allow it to convince Taiwan to return to its fold without necessarily having to cross swords with Washington.