The Russian aggression in Ukraine is an unprecedented drama which, like all Canadians, scandalizes me. Faced with the concert of opprobrium against Vladimir Putin, I think it necessary to bring nuances that it is always dangerous to state in times of crisis without appearing to betray the sacred union. I take the risk.
Posted at 12:00 p.m.
The war in Ukraine will probably only be able to stop when Putin’s main conditions have been accepted by Ukraine and the West: the neutrality of Ukraine, the recognition of Russian Crimea, a relative autonomy of the Donbass region , consisting of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Putin’s broader demands for the West and Ukraine are to shut the door on Ukraine’s eventual NATO membership, to desist from establishing bases or deploying weapons in countries that have joined NATO since 1997 or in countries that were not part of it in 1997, and to cease their military activities in the immediate vicinity of the Russian borders. These conditions, which are rather realistic and reasonable, do not a priori have anything to prevent us from sleeping and would make it possible to consolidate post-Cold War peace. 1, 2
The Russia-West conflict, in Ukraine and possibly in the regions bordering Russia, could have been avoided by a Russia-West (United States-European Union) treaty in two parts: a formal commitment by the parties to respect the conditions above and an equally formal commitment by the parties to intervene militarily if one of them intervenes militarily in the territories concerned. An alliance therefore of a “defensive type”, like NATO, with the United States-European Union coalition and Russia as members, among others.
A simple formula of responsible freedom and balance of terror with incentive guarantees.
In exchange for a guarantee from the parties to respect its democratic and economic choices, Ukraine would commit to international neutrality “à la Suisse”, outside NATO and the European Union, with a duty of reserve. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky should abandon his unrealistic desire to join NATO and the European Union and devote his energies to building the Switzerland of Eastern Europe.
Failing to have diplomatically sought such an agreement, Western and Russian diplomacy leaves us mired in a vicious circle (a bad Nash equilibrium, for economists). Each side reacts to the actions and strategies of the other: a balance of best, rational, but myopic responses.
Thus the United States-European Union coalition refuses Russian demands. Russia is positioning itself at the gates of Ukraine. The United States-European Union coalition hardens its tone and announces the military reinforcement of NATO at the gates of Russia. Russia invades Ukraine, continues and increases its attacks. The United States-European Union coalition imposes economic and diplomatic sanctions on Russia, its leaders and their oligarch friends. Russia is stepping up its aggression against Ukrainian cities. Further escalation of United States–European Union sanctions and attacks against Russian institutions, athletes, artists and ordinary citizens.
And we start over and over again. A vicious cycle of street gang behavior.
The alternative win-win balance of a more subtle Russia-US-EU treaty is set aside.
Rather than allowing the leaders of Ukraine to dream and now get bogged down in an unequal and hopeless war, the West should have encouraged them to opt for the solution of neutrality by guaranteeing, together with Russia, its respect by the continued.
The current poor balance is becoming more and more stabilized. Until the point of no return, probably already reached. We will be entangled and locked in it for quite some time. Unnecessarily and on the backs of vulnerable populations, a horrible and daily spectacle. Civilization suffers a decades-long setback for no reason and civilizing free trade is seriously undermined. In the meantime, the approval ratings of heads of state are improving and companies are preparing to take advantage of the relaxation, if not the abandonment, of Western-Russian exchanges. To the detriment of citizens of the world, Ukrainians, Russians, Europeans, Canadians and others.
At best, we will have to console the 40 million or so Ukrainians who will not have succeeded in fleeing their country and who will have to live in a bruised country, morally diminished and economically in ruins. We will express our sympathy to them by telling them that our hearts go out to them. That should be enough for them to get through the night, the winter and the end of the month. What a disaster !
* Associate member, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE) and Institute for Advanced Strudy in Toulouse (IAST)