Posted yesterday at 11:00 p.m.
On Tuesday, the news was rather good regarding the negotiations, with both sides speaking of significant progress. But overnight from Tuesday to Wednesday, the Russian shelling continued. What should we understand?
The lesson we can draw from this is that we should not rely too much on the signals we receive from the negotiations. There is clearly a communication exercise on both sides, but it seems unlikely in the circumstances that the negotiations will unblock in the short term, considering that each side can still hope to make gains on the ground, and therefore, has no interest in making major concessions.
At the end of the negotiations, could Russia have to assume a responsibility for the reconstruction of Ukraine?
Russia would obviously have a moral responsibility in this regard, but that is not how politics works. In concrete terms, the question was raised in the context of the negotiations, but it would be very surprising if Russia, whose economic situation is in decline, agreed to reimburse the costs of the reconstruction of Ukraine.
PHOTO FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MONTREAL WEBSITE
Guillaume Sauvé, from the Center for International Studies and Research of the University of Montreal
Given the censorship exercised by its government, what proportion of the Russian population is really aware of what is happening in Ukraine?
It is difficult to assess. Russians who get their news mainly from television will only have access to official propaganda. Russians who get more information from the Internet – and it is generally the younger generations – will be able to access other types of information through social networks or independent Russian media through the use of VPNs ( virtual private networks that bypass the blocking of certain sites).
If so, what is the general opinion of Russian citizens regarding this conflict?
Three categories can be distinguished. A significant minority openly oppose Russia’s war in Ukraine. It is manifested by the anti-war movement, as well as by the large wave of exodus. Another minority actively supports the war. It manifests itself through this campaign which takes the symbol “Z” as a rallying sign. Finally, a majority of Russians passively support the regime, with no enthusiasm for the war, either out of ignorance, indifference or cognitive dissonance.
Several military observers tell us about the disorganization of the Russian army, and this arouses both astonishment and skepticism. Should we question the power of the Russian army?
It is quite striking indeed to note the slowness of the Russian advance considering its considerable military capabilities. This seems to be partly explained by the lack of motivation of the soldiers, as well as by organizational problems which could be explained by the corruption of the army as well as of the whole of the Russian state. That said, one should not underestimate all the reserves that Russia still has, whether in terms of the number of soldiers or the amount of equipment.
How ready is Russia to move towards the use of nuclear weapons?
Russia has no interest in using nuclear weapons, on the one hand because it could trigger an escalation whose consequences are unpredictable, on the other hand because it has soldiers on the ground. On the other hand, Russia has every interest in raising the threat of the use of nuclear weapons in order to dissuade the NATO powers from intervening directly.
US President Joe Biden has made clumsy statements saying he wants Vladimir Putin removed from power. Could Putin loyalists turn against him?
It seems unlikely in the short term. First of all, because the army and the security service constitute the base of Vladimir Putin’s regime. And second, because the oligarchs owe the enjoyment of their wealth and privileges to their personal loyalty to Vladimir Putin. A change of regime is in my opinion only conceivable in the medium or long term, in the perspective of a very significant fall in the standard of living of the Russian population, which does not seem certain, unless the Europeans give up completely on Russian hydrocarbons.
It’s been more than a month since the Russian invasion began. How much longer could it last?
Unfortunately, I don’t expect a quick resolution to this conflict. As a reminder, the war in Ukraine has already lasted for eight years, Russia having intervened militarily as early as 2014. We could see a reduction in the intensity of the conflict and an entrenchment of Russia in certain areas it controls. In this context, the conflict could drag on indefinitely.
With the collaboration of Henri Ouellette-Vézina, The Press