Six months after the Russian invasion, the conflict in Ukraine, even bogged down, is far from over as the Kremlin forces continue to cheat and the Ukrainians do not give up the fight.
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“It’s a conflict that is getting bogged down, because the Russians weren’t able to achieve the strategic objectives they had set themselves from the start and they had to modify them throughout the past six months to justify their presence,” says Pierre St-Cyr, retired colonel and former Canadian defense attaché to Russia and Ukraine.
Since February 24, the day the invasion of Ukraine began, Russian forces have used or seen destroyed a very large part of their resources, such as their tanks, their armored vehicles or their artillery pieces. , says the former member of the Canadian Armed Forces.
“They have to go and draw on reserves that date back to the 1960s, so they are rusty vehicles, with guns of dubious quality. We don’t know if it’s going to shoot or explode,” he says.
But it is clear that the war will not end tomorrow and could last several more months, warns Mr. St-Cyr.
“The Russians are continuing their breakthrough because they don’t want to lose what they’ve made in the last six months, and they’re going to continue the war,” he said.
More equipped Russians
Despite everything, the forces remain very unbalanced, believes for his part Michel W. Drapeau, professor of law at the University of Ottawa and retired colonel.
“The Russians have 10 times more equipment and strategic capability against Ukraine,” he explains.
But the Ukrainians remain formidable adversaries in this conflict, leaving no chance for their enemies to gain ground easily.
“Everything could change overnight, because the Ukrainians have succeeded in destroying a good number of strategic installations in recent weeks,” adds Mr. Drapeau, who thinks that the conflict will last several more months.
Ukrainian morale
After six months of war, the morale of the Ukrainians seems to hold good, compared to that of the Russians, say experts. “As long as the morale is good, like it is in Ukraine, it’s almost impossible to beat an enemy because he’s going to fight until the end, and the Russians are learning to cope to the strength of the Ukrainians,” thinks Michel W. Drapeau, professor of law at the University of Ottawa and retired colonel. For Pierre St-Cyr, it is above all that the country of Volodymyr Zelensky has been preparing for many years to fight Vladimir Poutine, in addition to being very nationalist. “This motivation will last as long as the war lasts and will even intensify when they get frustrated to see the Russians committing atrocities at home,” he explains.
Harder for Russians
On the side of the Russians, the situation seems more difficult than among the Ukrainians since the news from the front indicates that the soldiers are “poorly fed and badly equipped”, believes Michel W. Drapeau. The Russian ranks are also suffering from a lack of personnel and therefore of fresh relief, explains Pierre St-Cyr. “It is estimated that a third of the Russian forces engaged since February are no longer able to fight […]. It has an impact on Russian society, which sees them return to this state. The Russians are not fooled,” he says.
Difficult for civilians
Since the start of the conflict, nearly 14 million Ukrainian civilians have been forced from their homes, according to the latest data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Just over 4.7 million people crossed the border to return home. “Life resumes, shops, cinemas and restaurants are open. Obviously life is easier for those who have kept an income, but for those who have fled, it is certainly more difficult,” said Daniel Yourkevich, who has never left the city of Odessa. For her part, Olena Chychkan, 18, is waiting with part of her family in Poland to be able to return home. “Hopefully we can be home soon. Everything will be better after our return and after the victory [de l’Ukraine] “, she confides.
War crimes
In May, Ukraine claimed to have recorded thousands of “war crimes” since the conflict began on February 24. For several experts, it is to be expected that this number will increase considerably, given that the war is far from over. “As long as it continues, these crimes will also continue. It’s undeniable,” says Pierre St-Cyr, retired colonel and former Canadian defense attaché in Moscow and Kyiv. For him, it is more than important that everything be meticulously documented so that the culprits can be judged when the time comes. For his part, retired Major Michael Boire reminds us that we must be careful of disinformation campaigns coming from Russia, Ukraine, but also from NATO, a politico-military organization. “It is certain and certain that the Ukrainians also committed crimes,” he warns.