War in Ukraine | Russian losses, elusive victory

After more than a month of heavy casualties, the Russian military is in bad shape in Ukraine – setting the conditions for a long conflict that could go so far as to test NATO’s limits, say experts interviewed by The Press.

Posted at 5:00 a.m.

Nicolas Berube

Nicolas Berube
The Press

40,000

Number of Russian soldiers wounded, dead, missing or taken prisoner since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine just over a month ago, according to NATO


PHOTO IRINA RYBAKOVA, REUTERS ARCHIVES

Destroyed Russian self-propelled artillery mount, Sumy region, Ukraine

Between 7,000 and 15,000

Number of Russian soldiers killed since the start of the invasion on February 24, a blow for Moscow. Media outlet Radio Free Europe reported this week that thousands of wounded and killed Russian soldiers were being quietly transported to Belarus to avoid overloading hospitals and morgues in Russia, where the government refuses to talk about war, citing instead a ” special operation” in Ukraine.

1300

Number of Ukrainian soldiers killed as of March 12, according to information provided by the government of Kyiv


PHOTO BULENT KILIC, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE ARCHIVES

Body of a Ukrainian soldier covered with a sheet next to the military school hit by Russian rockets on March 18, in Mykolaiv, southern Ukraine

Prisoners

As of March 19, Ukraine held 562 Russian POWs. As for Russia, it has not provided any data so far on Ukrainian prisoners of war.


PHOTO THOMAS PETER, REUTERS ARCHIVES

Russian military winter hat and personal belongings of Russian soldiers left behind after Ukrainian forces routed their armored vehicles, near Brovary, Ukraine, March 10

Trades

Russians and Ukrainians exchanged prisoners on Thursday, according to Iryna Vereshchuk, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister, and the Russian delegate for human rights. “In exchange for ten captured occupants, we recovered ten of our soldiers,” she said, according to Agence France-Presse. It is known that informal exchanges of prisoners of war between Ukraine and Russia have taken place since the beginning of the Russian invasion. The daily Kyiv Independent reported this week that Ukrainian soldiers were even exchanging the remains of Russian soldiers for living Ukrainian prisoners of war. A field journalist from the same media reported that six corpses of Russian soldiers had been exchanged for two Ukrainian prisoners of war near Kyiv this week.


PHOTO ASSOCIATED PRESS

Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine, in virtual conference with NATO on Thursday

Russia has no intention of stopping in Ukraine. She has no intention and will not. She wants to go further.

Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine, in conference virtually with NATO on Thursday

The problem with a protracted war is that it is difficult for the NATO countries to stay in agreement. Everyone has their interests, their geostrategic challenges […] For example, Europe needs Russian energy, while North Americans don’t. Will they be able to maintain a united front for a long time? I doubt.

Luca Sollaï, lecturer in the history department of the University of Montreal


PHOTO THOMAS PETER, REUTERS

A resident of Kharkiv walks near a family home that was destroyed in a bombardment.

I think the crisis will last. The poor Ukrainians, they will suffer. The Russians have suffered a lot of losses, but we are not at the point where we can envisage a victory for the Ukrainian side either. And the closer the Russian forces are to the NATO states, the higher the tensions will be […] Will Putin want an escalation elsewhere than in Ukraine? It is a possibility, even if it is not extremely realistic. One can imagine that Russia, feeling squeezed in the corner, decides to climb the ladder of the crisis.

Michel Fortmann, Emeritus Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Montreal


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