(Washington) The initial invasion of Ukraine by the Russian military proved a startling tactical and strategic error, marked by food and fuel shortages, the abandonment of armed vehicles, the loss of aircraft and the death of soldiers, say American experts.
Posted at 7:05 a.m.
But the disappointments of the first days, with an underestimation of the Ukrainians’ determination to defend themselves, could lead Moscow to decide to unleash its full power and indiscriminately destroy large swaths of the country, they add.
American Russian military specialists say they were astonished by the mismanagement of the campaign, with invasion columns bogged down, hundreds of Russian armor apparently lost, and Kremlin air forces prevented by Ukrainian defense from control the sky.
“When you screw it up after two or three weeks, I can understand that,” said Scott Boston, senior defense analyst at the Rand Corp think tank. “But when you stumble on the doorstep when entering the house, you have another problem.”
The Pentagon and private sector experts expected Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military to quickly destroy Ukraine’s ability to fight back, undermining the command of Ukraine’s 200,000 military, tearing down missile defenses and destroying the Kyiv Air Force.
None of this happened in the first six days of fighting. And, although there is no reliable estimate of the number of Russian soldiers killed, wounded or captured, it seems to be much higher than expected for a well-prepared invasion.
‘Colossal intelligence failure’
“It was a colossal intelligence failure that vastly underestimated the Ukrainian resistance, and the military execution was terrible,” Michael Vickers, former U.S. undersecretary of defense for intelligence, told the Center this week. strategic and international studies.
“His main attack was insufficient. It was fragmentary. Its reconnaissance elements were captured, columns were destroyed,” he added. “It’s just a disaster, through and through. »
According to military experts from the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center, the Russians had failed to quickly seize and hold an airport near Kyiv.
The airport was probably too damaged in the fighting to be used as planned to invade Kyiv, these specialists pointed out.
Moreover, they add, “the losses of Russian planes and helicopters were surprisingly high and detrimental”, as they were unable to destroy the Ukrainian air defenses.
Another surprise: the limited and ineffective deployment of electronic warfare weapons, which, according to analysts’ expectations, were to play a determining role in the attack on the means of communication of the Ukrainians.
“Had the Russians managed to cut off Ukrainian military leaders from those they command, Ukrainian air and air defense forces would have been forced to fight in an uncoordinated manner, making them less lethal and more vulnerable to attack” , says the Scowcroft Center report.
Mr Boston points out that the Ukrainians have continued to use their Turkish-made Bayraktar drones to destroy Russian forces.
“If they get hit by Turkish drones once or twice, ok,” he said. “If they are hit more than once or twice, something is wrong on the Russian side.”
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said the Russians appear to have failed to coordinate “their considerable and diverse capabilities and manage the logistics of the invasion.” »
“Abandoned Vehicles”
“We have indications here, early on, that although they have sophisticated combined arms capabilities, they are not necessarily fully integrated,” he added.
Equally surprising: their logistical shortcomings.
“We see abandoned vehicles. We are seeing support issues, not only with fuel, but also with food,” Kirby said on Wednesday.
Mr Boston, who has taken part in high-level war simulations focusing on Russian forces, points out that there are signs that many of these forces are young, insufficiently trained for this type of conflict and unaware of probably they were going to war.
It also appears, he adds, that the troops on the ground had no idea what they were trying to do by invading Ukraine.
“If you don’t know what’s going on, you can’t adapt,” he explains.
However, none of the experts see the Russians out of the picture. Their army’s advance has stalled, but this could allow it to solve its logistical problems, notes Mr. Kirby.
On the contrary, scholars fear that Mr. Putin’s frustration will spur him to unleash the full force of his artillery, missiles and air power on the Ukrainian people with devastating effect.
“Russia still holds the advantages of overwhelming combat power that will eventually overwhelm Ukrainian forces as the war continues,” the Scowcroft Center report said.