(Sydney) Advisors to Russian President Vladimir Putin “are afraid to tell him the truth” about his “failing” war strategy in Ukraine, the director of British intelligence said on Thursday.
Posted yesterday at 10:45 p.m.
Vladimir Putin “extremely misjudged” the invasion, British intelligence agency GHQ director Jeremy Fleming said in a speech at the Australian National University in Canberra.
We’ve seen Russian soldiers—outgunned and in low morale—refusing to carry out orders, sabotaging their own equipment, and even accidentally shooting down their own aircraft.
Jeremy Fleming, Director of British Intelligence
PHOTO HANNAH MCKAY, REUTERS ARCHIVES
Jeremy Fleming
“And even if Putin’s advisers are afraid to tell him the truth, what is happening and the extent of these miscalculations must be perfectly clear to the regime,” he said.
These remarks, published in advance, echo those of American intelligence published by the White House the day before, indicating that Mr Putin was “misinformed” by his advisers on the evolution of the Russian operation.
Western intelligence is trying to highlight Russia’s failures in this war and the divisions within Putin’s inner circle.
On the ground in Ukraine, Moscow uses mercenaries and foreign fighters to support its own forces.
Among them is the Wagner Group, which is “shifting into high gear” after having been active in the country since the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014.
“The group works like a shadow branch of the Russian army”, allowing Vladimir Putin to relieve himself of responsibility for “riskier operations”, he argued.
According to Mr. Fleming, the Russian president, however, underestimated the Ukrainian resistance, the strength of the international coalition against him and the impact of economic sanctions.
The Russian leader also overestimated his own army’s ability to achieve a quick victory, he added.
Moscow’s commitment to “drastically” reduce its military activity around Kyiv and in the northern city of Cherniguiv “perhaps shows that it has been forced to question itself in a significant way”, according to Jeremy Fleming.
However, he warned that Russian cyberattacks remain a threat for the time being: “We have seen indicators that suggest that Russian cyberactors are seeking targets in countries that oppose their actions. »
In his speech, the British intelligence chief pointed out that Chinese President Xi Jinping had refused to condemn the invasion, providing some diplomatic and economic support to Russia.
“With a view to retaking Taiwan, China does not want to do anything that could limit its ability to act in the future,” he said, predicting, however, that the relationship between China and Russia will deteriorate as as China’s military and economic might increase.