War in Ukraine | “Putin will not have an easy victory in the east”

Faced with the impossibility of conquering the whole of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is now trying to take military control of the east and south of the country. While this goal is more modest, its success is far from assured, said Michael Horowitz, an analyst working for Le Beck, a security and geopolitics consulting firm based in the Middle East. The Press spoke to him.

Nicolas Berube
The Press

Q. Russia is now in the “new phase” of its war, concentrated in eastern and southern Ukraine. Does this less ambitious objective mean that it will be more successful than during the first phase, which did not work very well?

A. A more modest goal does not necessarily mean a higher chance of success. As we can already see, a week after the start of this “new phase” of Russian operations, there are not many changes in terms of tactics: the Russians continue to come up against medium-sized and large towns in particular, despite the indiscriminate use of land and air strikes. They also continue to rely on heavy and armored units that lack agility in a war that demands it.

Also, there was no real reflection on the part of the Kremlin on the past mistakes made in its invasion, and for good reason: the previous phase dates from barely two weeks ago! It takes much longer to regroup and change strategy.

Western countries seem to have decided to arm Ukraine more strongly. Do you think this will have a real impact on the pitch?

Western aid can have a strong impact on the ground. For example, the Ukrainians now need heavy and precise artillery, because in reality, the war is played much more at a distance than we think. We note on the subject the important decision of Canada to send howitzers M777, and that of France to send CAESAR artillery pieces. Coupled with commercial drones, artillery can be devastating against Russian armor columns. To this must be added anti-tank guided missiles, already produced by Ukraine, anti-aircraft missiles and anti-ship missiles. These relatively light systems play an important role in restoring the balance between the Russian giant and its Ukrainian neighbor, as was the case with the attack on the cruiser Moskva. If the Ukrainians decide to go on the offensive, they will also need armor, and potentially planes – something the West is already preparing for.

So the coming weeks will not necessarily be easier for Moscow…

Absolutely. It must be realized that if the Russian objectives were extravagant in February, with the will to take Kyiv in a few days and to conclude the operation in two weeks, according to certain documents found on the Russian soldiers, the new objectives are not no less difficult to achieve.

Let’s not forget that the Donbass area in eastern Ukraine has been in conflict for eight years, since 2014, and that the region is not yet fully controlled by Russia. Why ? One of the reasons is that the Ukrainian units defending the Donbass have had time to build up an important defensive network during all these years.

The problem facing Moscow is that even this supposedly more limited operation comes with significant difficulties. In other words, the capture of Donbass is far from the “easy victory” that Moscow seeks. Russia chooses to think smaller, but it always thinks very, if not too much, big.

Russia lied to start the war; could she be lying to get out of it? For example, throwing a big party on May 9, the historic day of victory over the Nazis, and saying that it has achieved its “goals”?

Russia has a long history on this side, and the use of lies is certainly not to be excluded. Whether he likes it or not, Putin will have to justify the heavy losses in men, which will become increasingly difficult to hide, and I do not exclude that he lies and embellishes things. The question will be whether the Russians will believe him, or whether the truth will begin to seep through the Russian informational iron curtain.