War in Ukraine | Putin criticized, but not threatened by Russian rout

The Russian army has been routed in Ukraine over the past few days. A situation coupled with the emergence of criticism from within Russia against President Vladimir Putin. Russia responds by announcing “massive strikes” in Ukraine. What is it really?

Andre Duchesne
The Press

Russians overwhelmed in the east

The Russians were expecting a Ukrainian counter-offensive, announced by President Volodymyr Zelensky, in the south of the country. But it has been coupled with a furious attack in the northeast in recent days. The Ukrainians would have regained 6000 km^⁠2 of land, said President Zelensky (8800 km^⁠2 according to a map of New York Times). “Things are moving in the south, but not at the speed of what happened in the east,” says Dominique Arel, holder of the Research Chair in Ukrainian Studies at the University of Ottawa. No one expected this offensive. It was stunning. The trick of the Ukrainians was to announce only an offensive in the south. This shows, as one analyst said, that the Russians, in terms of intelligence, are not able to penetrate the inner circle of Ukrainian decision-makers. In 2014 (invasion of Crimea) they had spies everywhere. »

Should we fear massive strikes?

On Tuesday, Moscow promised to respond to the Ukrainian offensive with “massive strikes” on all fronts. “With what happened at the end of the week, the Russians no longer have the capacity to attack, continues Dominique Arel. They still have the ability to launch missiles… but a big offensive? No. According to the version of the Russian Defense Ministry, the troops have regrouped. But in fact, they completely collapsed. They fled leaving a lot of equipment behind. Putin’s goal of conquering all of Donbass will not happen. At least not this fall. »

Aiming at civilians or the politics of the worst

What options do the Russians have left? The fear is to see them attack civilian homes and infrastructure. A strategy already adopted in the past, particularly in Chechnya and Syria. “Attacking civilians and civilian infrastructure (power grid, water reservoirs, etc.) is the worst policy,” continues Mr. Arel. The Russians did it in Kharkiv at the weekend by attacking the power stations. Will they start doing it systematically in a strategy of desperation? We can expect the worst. But do they have the capacity to do so? They have fewer and fewer high-precision missiles. In addition, the Ukrainian troops have American Himars missiles of “amazing precision”, continues the researcher.

Putin criticized…

Meanwhile, in Russia, protests are rising. On the left, as on the right of President Putin. In St. Petersburg, eight local elected officials asked the Russian parliament (Duma) to impeach Putin for high treason. To the right of the leader, nationalist supporters, of an even harder line with regard to Ukraine, are stamping with impatience and find the president too soft. The “hawks” put forward epithets such as: troubling, betrayal, depressing. But according to Maria Popova, associate professor of political science at McGill University, the Russian president is not threatened.

… by voices that are not new

“Putin is challenged by people who want the war to escalate. But that’s not really possible; Russia threw almost everything in this war,” said Mr.^me Popova. Other people, thinking from the start that this war was a bad idea, are calling for peace. None of these voices are strong enough and none are really new. They are on a small scale. Some believe they see a big step forward, but that’s not so surprising. We know that there is a committed but very small opposition in Russia. These voices have always been opposed to Putin. That does not mean that the population as a whole adheres to these criticisms. »

The prison ? Arbitrary !

Criticizing the regime in place is very bold in Russia. Thus, on September 5, the former journalist Ivan Safronov, a critic of the regime, was sentenced to 22 years in prison. “The regime in place does not tolerate criticism. But it is arbitrary,” says M.^me Popova. Some people are thrown in prison for a long time… or not. There are cases where nothing happens. “This is part of a strategy that places people in a situation of constant uncertainty,” continues the professor. And it’s useful for the regime to keep people out of prison. They can thus define themselves as tolerant. »

Kyiv progresses in the Donbass

The Ukrainian counter-offensive in the Donbass continued on Tuesday. Ukrainian border guards said the army had taken control of the town of Vovchansk, three kilometers from the border with Russia. This city had been taken by Russian forces on February 24, the first day of the war. In the south, the Russian troops were also abandoning the town of Melitopol, occupied since March, and falling back towards the Crimea.

With the New York Times, Agence France-Presse and TV5 Monde