War in Ukraine | Ongoing concerns over Russia’s May 9 celebrations

Fueled by the war in Ukraine, speculation, often mixed with concern, is rife about the May 9 parade in Russia, the annual Victory Day celebration commemorating the surrender of Nazi Germany in 1945.

Andre Duchesne
The Press

Will Vladimir Putin take the opportunity to declare war (until now named special operation) on Ukraine? Extend the conflict and take NATO head-on? Call for general mobilization? Declare his victory, stop everything and keep control of the conquered territories? Or will nothing happen…?

“I don’t know what will happen. There are all kinds of hypotheses that go in several directions. But this day has an important symbolic meaning for Russia. So I wouldn’t be surprised if an announcement were made that day,” says Kristy Ironside, assistant professor in the Department of History and Classics at McGill University and Russia specialist.

“In the current state of things, where the only ground of military parity with the United States is that of the nuclear deterrent force, I doubt that anything will happen,” says Yann Breault, professor of international studies. at the Royal Military College of Saint-Jean. Of course, the tone of the Russian president will be harsh and mobilizing. But with all the difficulties that the Russian army is experiencing on the ground, do we really want to create a general mobilization? I doubt. »

May 9 in history

For Russians and Ukrainians, May 9 is the anniversary of Germany’s surrender. A first act of surrender had been signed on May 7, 1945 in Reims. But Stalin had demanded a second signature in Berlin, the capital of the defeated country. This took place on May 8, 1945 at 11:01 p.m. Berlin time, or 1:01 a.m. on May 9 in Moscow.

Professor and holder of the Chair in Ukrainian Studies at the University of Ottawa, Dominique Arel explains that this holiday has, over the years, eclipsed the anniversary of the revolution of October 25, 1917 (in fact November 9, Russia n ‘having not yet adopted the Gregorian calendar at the time).

Before World War II, the Soviet regime legitimized itself with the anniversary of the October Revolution, he says. Then came the Second World War which, on the Soviet side, had almost always been presented as a victory against the fascists and not against the Germans.

“The Soviet state was presented as anti-fascist,” explains Mr. Arel. Why ? Because suddenly there were Germans on the right side, those from East Germany. But it was not until the 1960s that the regime began to legitimize itself based on victory over the fascists rather than revolution. One of the reasons is that the revolution was to lead to the establishment of socialism. But the horizon of socialism kept disappearing. »

However, as the 1945 victory was barely a generation old, it has become a unifying element…

Military parade in Mariupol?

May 9 has also become the privileged moment for the USSR to release its imposing military hardware: tanks, planes, rocket launchers and even nuclear missiles.

We see it again this year when preparations for Monday’s parade are well underway. On May 4, the media reported exercises of fighter planes and helicopters, including a group of eight MIG-29s forming a Z, which had become the symbol of the invasion.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said the parade would take place in 28 Russian cities, involve 65,000 people and more than 460 aircraft. However, according to the Associated Press, the number of vehicles will be lower this year due to the Russian military commitment in Ukraine.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine, intelligence services have hinted that Moscow is planning a Victory Parade in Mariupol, a city virtually conquered except for the pocket of resistance fighters in the Azovstal steelworks. The Russians are clearing the streets, removing dead bodies and adding decor in preparation for this parade, say the Ukrainians. Minister Shoigu did not react to this assertion.

The Kremlin has also described as “nonsense” the rumor that President Putin is taking advantage of May 9 to declare war. To this, observers recalled that Moscow denied until February 24 that it was preparing to enter Ukraine.

With The New York TimesAgence France-Presse and the Associated Press