War in Ukraine | Moscow is reorganizing, more “suffering” to be expected

Western countries and NATO said they feared on Thursday that Moscow would step up its offensive on the Donbass region in the east, while maintaining “pressure on Kyiv and other cities”. This “repositioning” of Russian forces suggests, according to observers, a “prolonged” conflict.

Henri Ouellette-Vezina
The Press

Not a withdrawal, but a repositioning

Russian forces are “not withdrawing, they are retaking positions” in Ukraine, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Thursday as Russia’s soldiers began to withdraw from the Chernobyl nuclear site, which they had taken control from the first day of the invasion. “We expect additional offensive actions that will result in even more suffering,” he said. In Kharviv, Ukrainian General Pavlo “Maestro” also felt that Russia is “regrouping to attack and to mass the maximum of forces” in southern and eastern Ukraine. US President Joe Biden again said he was “skeptical” of Moscow’s announcements of a partial withdrawal of its troops. A source at the Pentagon spoke of a conflict that risked being “protracted”, saying he believed “that these forces will be re-equipped and sent back to Ukraine” to continue the fight in the east.

When will there be a “real dialogue”?

According to Michel Fortmann, professor of foreign policy and national security at the University of Montreal, the Russians are trying to “buy time” by “pretending to negotiate”. “It’s a bit of window dressing. Everyone can hope. It is a war that is so useless, stupid, costly. But I’m not optimistic, not as it started, and especially not with the Russian leadership as it is. It is not a leadership that negotiates, ”he judges. Mr Fortmann recalls that Russia will launch its conscription campaign on Friday targeting men between the ages of 18 and 27 who are not students. “It potentially affects 100,000 people. For me, it doesn’t look like a drop in tensions at all, quite the contrary, ”says the expert.

A humanitarian corridor in Mariupol

After announcing a local ceasefire there on Wednesday to allow the evacuation of 160,000 civilians, the Kremlin confirmed on Thursday that a humanitarian corridor allowing the evacuation of the population would be opened on Friday in Mariupol, a major port city. of southeastern Ukraine that Moscow’s forces have been trying to conquer for weeks. The Russian Ministry of Defense said the measure was taken following “a personal request from the French President [Emmanuel Macron] and the German Chancellor [Olaf Scholz] to the Russian President. The Maltese Roberta Metsola, President of the European Parliament, also indicated Thursday evening on Twitter that she was “on the way to Kyiv”.

Ottawa suggests international investigation

Closer to home, Federal Minister for International Development Harjit Sajjan suggested on Thursday that Russia’s blocking of humanitarian aid to Ukraine and its bombardment of medical facilities should be the subject of an international investigation into war crimes. He made the remarks even as half a dozen additional RCMP investigators are due to travel to The Hague, Netherlands this week to take part in the International Criminal Court (ICC) investigation into war crimes allegedly committed by Russia during the Ukrainian invasion.

Putin raises his voice

For his part, President Vladimir Putin on Thursday banned entry into Russian territory for leaders and the majority of MEPs, in response to all-out sanctions targeting Moscow. His regime is now threatening buyers of Russian gas from “unfriendly” countries with cutting off their supply if they do not comply with Kremlin demands, a measure intended to support the ruble that would mainly affect the European Union, which is highly dependent on Russian gas. . “They have to open ruble accounts in Russian banks. And from these accounts, they will have to pay for the gas delivered, and this, as soon as [ce vendredi] “Insisted Vladimir Putin.

Shooting at a humanitarian convoy

One person was killed and four others injured in shootings at a convoy of five buses carrying volunteers to the besieged city of Chernihiv in northern Ukraine. Lyudmyla Denisova, human rights officer at the Ukrainian parliament, accuses Russian troops of “not leaving the slightest possibility of evacuating civilians from besieged Chernihiv, leaving tens of thousands of civilians without food, without water, without heating “. After Mariupol in the south, Chernihiv, which had 280,000 inhabitants before the war, is the city hardest hit by bombing since the start of the war.

Another meeting to come

In Turkey, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, announced at the start of the day Thursday that a new meeting between his Russian counterparts Sergei Lavrov and Ukrainian Dmytro Kouleba could take place “within one or two weeks”. Turkey could then host this meeting. Shortly after, the Ukrainian chief negotiator, David Arakhamia, had also indicated earlier on Wednesday that online talks with the Russian delegation would resume on Friday. The European Union (EU) also wants to persuade China to give up helping Moscow to counter Western sanctions on Friday during a virtual summit where Beijing intends to revive its economic relationship with a Europe weakened by the war in Ukraine.

With Agence France-Presse