War in Ukraine | Kamikaze drones cause panic in Kyiv

(Kyiv) Suddenly the white kamikaze drone appears in the blue sky of Kyiv, speeding towards its target with the noise of a lawnmower. Panic, cries… Kneeling on the ground, a policeman shoots towards the machine with his Kalashnikov. In vain. The drone crashes in a plume of brown smoke.

It’s 8:13 a.m. (1:13 a.m. EDT) Monday morning in the center of the Ukrainian capital.

This is the second strike on this street in the Shevshchenko residential area and at least the fourth since 6:30 a.m. (11:30 p.m. Sunday EDT) on the city, already affected a week ago to the day.

In the middle of a crossroads, 100 meters from the first explosion, the police officers Oleg and Yaroslav parked their car marked with the police.

They prevent the movement of vehicles and access to buildings hit by kamikaze drones, so that it was not possible for AFP journalists to say what sheltered the targets hit. The town hall reported a residential building partially destroyed by the attack which killed at least three people.

A few residents look towards the site of the first explosion. Smoke still rises in the distance.

Suddenly, cries, and a movement of panic. Heads lift to the sky. People are running for cover.

At first distant, the sound of a drone becomes more precise when the machine passes over the neighborhood. Clearly visible, even if it is several tens of meters high, the white delta wing flies over buildings.

Like other police officers or soldiers present in the neighborhood, Yaroslav grabs his Kalashnikov, kneels on the ground and starts shooting towards the sky towards the drone.

Cracklings of firearms resound in the neighborhood, piecemeal or in bursts.

But nothing helps. The machine continues its flight, oblique towards the ground and comes to crash 200 meters further. The explosion echoes in the streets.

Less than 10 minutes later, around 8:20 a.m. (1:20 a.m. EDT), the scene repeated itself at the same location. Third hit in a row.

Screams, looks to the sky to try to locate the drone, the sound of the machine flying and approaching, panic, shots in the air, then a loud explosion with a plume of smoke, this time at two blocks from the previous explosion.

” Scary ”

The anti-aircraft alarm sirens never sounded before these last two strikes, noted an AFP journalist.

“You know, we’ve been here maybe half an hour and four drones went down,” says police officer Irasolav, still nervous after firing. “It’s a bit scary, but it’s our job, what can we do? It’s normal because it’s our job. We have to do this”.

200 meters from the explosions, two elderly women and an elderly man are still sheltering under the low wall of a building, next to a policeman. They want to leave the place.

“Let’s go to the subway, there’s a bomb shelter,” one of the women said to the other two people. “When the weapons start crackling, it means they (the drones) are flying somewhere. Can we go out now? We want to go to the nearby park,” she asks the policeman, who lets them go.

Sacha, 22, lives in a building near where the drones hit. “I was woken up by the first explosion around 6.30 a.m.,” he said, his face worried.

He stands close to a building porch that serves as a shelter. “I’m scared,” he said, refusing to speak any further.

Lessya lives in a building at the crossroads blocked by the car of the two policemen. “We believe in our armed forces and we believe in our victory and we will not be intimidated by these explosions,” she said on the sidewalk.

“They don’t scare us. We are used to it and still believe that we will win no matter what. Yes, it’s scary […]but they will never intimidate us,” continues the 60-year-old resident.

Iranian drones in Ukraine, symbols of Russian weakness

The use by the Russians of Iranian drones in Ukraine, like those which struck Kyiv on Monday morning, demonstrates two things: the growing role of Tehran in this activity and certain shortcomings in the Russian drone industry.

Iran delivered hundreds of drones to Russia this summer, according to the White House, and they are regularly used, again on Monday against Kyiv.

What drones for what?

Two models have been identified with different uses.

“The Shahed 136 is a fairly large, low-cost construction suicide drone. It reaches its target by GPS coordinates, entered before takeoff. It then evolves autonomously, flying quite low and reaching a target which is necessarily fixed a few hundred kilometers away,” explains Pierre Grasser, French researcher associated with the Sirice center in Paris.

It is this model that Russia is raining down on Ukraine.

But also “the Mohajer-6, which has a function and a size similar to the Turkish Bayraktar TB-2”, explains Vikram Mittal, professor at the American military academy of West Point.

The Mohajer-6 “are the Russian response to Ukraine’s TB-2”, the famous MALE (medium altitude, long endurance) armed drone supplied by Turkey and which also distinguished itself in the hands of Azerbaijan in its war against Armenia in 2020, recalls Jean-Christophe Noël, French researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).

What efficiency?

“Like all armed drones or prowling ammunition, they are very effective when the adversary does not have the means to protect themselves or retaliate,” underlines Mr. Noël.

“A lot of their initial success will come from the fact that it’s a new weapon in this theatre. The Ukrainians will capture them, dissect them and develop anti-drone systems. Before that, they will be effective, ”said Mr. Mittal.

Until then, the Ukrainians can try to shoot them down with portable anti-aircraft systems during the day, or batteries equipped with radar at night. They can also try – but the maneuver is not easy – to jam the GPS signal to interfere with the Shahed 136, which are not equipped to continue towards their target in this situation.

The Ukrainians claim to have shot down dozens of Iranian drones in recent weeks.

Regarding these suicide drones, “their use is a measure of economy for Russia, because it spares precious cruise missiles, which cost 1.5 to 2 million” US dollars each, recalls Mr. Grasser.

Their “main flaw is that they can only hit fixed targets,” he points out. “It poses little threat to deployed troops. This arrival of drones should therefore not change the course of the battle”.

Is it a Russian bankruptcy?

Why would Russia, one of the main arms producers in the world, buy from Iran?

“The (Russian) Ministry of Defense has developed appropriate tactical and technical requirements for drones. And most (Russian) manufacturers, unfortunately, are unable to comply with them,” Russian Colonel Igor Ichchuk said recently, as quoted by TASS.

Pierre Grasser, for his part, evokes a weakness in the Russian industrial structure. “The STC, which manufactures Orlan (reconnaissance) drones, has announced that it will switch to 3-8 to operate 24 hours a day. They are unable to form the teams. As on the front line, Russia’s problem is human resources,” he explains.

Beyond this difficulty, Russia had not planned long-range suicide drones like the Shahed 136 in its arsenal, but had “models with reduced autonomy (40 km maximum)”, he adds.

As for the MALE armed drones, “the fact of receiving Iranian Mohajer-6s is also an admission of industrial failure”, specifies the researcher. “They are supposed to have materials in this range […]. This means that (Russian industry) cannot keep up”.

“Western sanctions have caused problems, such as COVID-19, which has disrupted global supply chains,” Mittal said.

The Russians “no longer have access to Western technological components and their attempts to develop this type of device in series have been unsuccessful,” explains Mr. Noël.

Even if they implement workarounds. For example, have a Russian diplomat buy navigation systems anywhere in the world in an aeromodelling store. “The parts will then be sent to Russia by the diplomatic pouch,” explains Mr. Grasser.

Iran, rival of Ankara on the market?

“There is undoubtedly a form of race between Iran and Turkey on the segment of the cheap drones to extend their sphere of influence”, estimates Mr. Mittal.

“The top of the market is occupied by the United States and Israel,” recalls Mariane Renaux, aeronautics and drones expert. “Turkish drones are below, but are more reliable than Iranian drones which seem to lack high accuracy.”

“Iran already has customers for these drones in the Middle East” with its allies, from Yemen to Lebanon via Iraq, recalls Mr. Noël. “But the American sanctions against potential customers very strongly limit the number of candidates who would like to equip themselves with such equipment”.