The war has repercussions thousands of kilometers from kyiv. West Africa is threatened by “the worst food security and nutrition crisis in ten years”, warns the World Food Program (WFP). In the region, the number of people affected by a food crisis could reach 41 million by September, up from 10 million in 2019, according to projections by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (PDF). For some fifteen African countries, from Senegal in the West to Niger in the East, the rise in prices caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine has worsened a crisis situation that has been in place for several years.
In WFP’s view, the situation on the ground “is spiraling out of control”. “Acute food insecurity is no longer limited to the Sahel: it is now spreading to coastal countries”, recently warned Chris Nikoi, regional manager. In these states, the proportion of food insecure inhabitants has doubled in two years, reaching more than six million people. As for the Sahel, as many children under five “are at risk of suffering from acute malnutrition” This year.
Several factors have brought West Africa closer to food insecurity, according to the Economic Community of West African States* (ECOWAS), the WFP and the United Nations Food and agriculture (FAO). “This food crisis (…) has exploded in recent years, under the combined effect of insecurity caused by terrorism, banditry, inter-community conflicts, as well as climate change and the Covid-19 pandemic.” Five million West Africans have been displaced.
Global warming is at the heart of this crisis. “The rains are more uncertain and the harvests depend a lot on this climatic instability. Pockets of drought, mainly in the Sahelian countries, will also affect production”, emphasizes Matthieu Le Grix, Agriculture, Rural Development and Biodiversity Manager at the French Development Agency (AFD). The specialist also points to soil degradation in the region. Demographic changes have led, in certain rural areas, to the exploitation “of all surfaces, all the time, every year”while“a few years ago there were a lot fewer people, so farmers could leave land fallow”.
“This degradation of natural resources is a factor of conflict in the Sahel.”
Matthieu Le Grix, Head of Agriculture, Rural Development and Biodiversity at AFDat franceinfo
A recent study by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute* (Sipri) documented the close links between climate change, environmental degradation and conflicts in West Africa, three accelerators of the regional food crisis.
In a context of weakened natural resources, “competition [pour ces ressources] risk of provoking conflicts between farmers and herders”, warns Sipri. At the same time, armed groups have “benefits” effects of global warming, recruiting more in regions in crisis. These conflicts, when they gain ground, “prevent the work of farmers and pastoralism”a practice based on the movement of herds, continues Matthieu Le Grix.
Consequence of a decline in agricultural yields and a supply disrupted by conflicts, “Local grain prices have reached new highs in several countries”notes ECOWAS: +43% for corn compared to the average of the last five years, +27% for sorghum, +20% for rice… In March, cereal prices in the region were 33% higher than 70% at average prices since 2017. Burkina Faso, Chad and Benin are among the most affected countries. “You have prices of basic cereals which continue to climb in the face of populations who depend on the markets. Their purchasing power is only decreasing”illustrates Cédric Bernard, food security advisor for Action Against Hunger in West Africa.
“Prices have even risen beyond the levels seen during the 2008 food riots.”
Cédric Bernard, from Action Against Hungerat franceinfo
Health restrictions to curb the spread of Covid-19 have in turn caused, for ECOWAS, “a sustained increase in the price of food” in west Africa. Matthieu Le Grix specifies that the pandemic “was a factor that aggravated all this, with the disruption of production chains”. She also dived “in another level of poverty” families in urban areas, according to Marie Dasylva, head of Francophone communication for the WFP. “Many of the poorest households have lost their daily income from the shadow economy, which is highly developed in West Africa.”
It is in this context that the Russian invasion of Ukraine began on 24 February. ECOWAS insists: “A prolongation of the conflict could further exacerbate the region’s problems, with disastrous economic, food and political consequences.”
The agricultural sector finds itself hit hard by this war, through the increase in fertilizer prices. West Africa remains very dependent on Russian and Ukrainian imports of fertilizers. Result: only 48% of fertilizer needs were covered in the region on April 30, according to the ECOWAS study. For example, in Côte d’Ivoire, the fertilizer used for cocoa has gone from 14,000 CFA francs per 50 kg to 25,000 CFA francs since the beginning of the year, according to the FAO.
“We will have to count on a lower agricultural production because of this lower use of fertilizers”, warns Matthieu Le Grix. The WFP anticipates a decline of about a quarter of 2021 production in the region for next year.
This surge in prices also has immediate effects on essential foodstuffs such as corn or sunflower oil, blocked in the ports of the Black Sea. Wheat too, for which many West African countries depend on Russian-Ukrainian imports. “This is the case of Mauritania and Senegal which consume a lot of bread”, develops Cédric Bernard. In Senegal, 66% of wheat comes from Ukraine or Russia (PDF)*. Benin, Mauritania or Liberia import more than 50% of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine, according to the FAO (PDF)*.
“The increase in prices for imported cereals shifts part of the demand to local cereals, the prices of which are soaring.”
Cedric Bernardat franceinfo
This voltage may cause “social reactions” similar to the 2008 food riots, warns Matthieu Le Grix. These had affected around thirty countries, including Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire. In some countries, protest is already emerging. At the beginning of June, seven Senegalese flour mills which produce animal feed interrupted their deliveries, demanding that the State pay financial compensation to offset the effects of the war in Ukraine, reports RFI.
The effects are already visible in the population. For several weeks, Samba Ba, a breeder in the pastoral region of Ferlo (north-east of the country), has observed that “the pastures are exhausted”. “Farmers are losing animals because they can no longer feed them”, he tells franceinfo. A situation all the more critical as the “lean season” has begun. These few months of fluctuation, between the end of the disposal of stocks and the arrival of the next harvests towards the end of August, could still see many poor households tip into food insecurity.
* Links followed by an asterisk refer to pages in English.