War in Ukraine | Fear of a “large-scale” chemical attack is growing

Fear of a chemical or even nuclear attack or accident is growing in Ukraine. Not only is its president deeply concerned about it, but Westerners also consider the threat “very credible”, more than a month after the start of the Russian invasion. Moscow, for its part, affirms that it will only use nuclear weapons in Ukraine in the event of an “existential threat” against Russia.

Henri Ouellette-Vezina
The Press

“Very real. These are the words used by Volodymyr Zelensky to describe “the risk of large-scale use of chemical weapons by Russia” on its territory, in a video broadcast Thursday before the Heads of State and Government of the G7 meeting on the sidelines of a NATO summit in Brussels.

Mr. Zelensky claims that “phosphorus” bombs were used by the Russians on Thursday in Rubizhne, in the Luhansk region. At least five people died, including two children, and eight others were injured in new strikes. In northeastern Ukraine, at least six civilians were also killed and 15 others injured in another bombardment in Kharkiv, the country’s second city.

In the process, the President of the United States, Joe Biden, promised a “response” from NATO in the event of the use of chemical weapons, without however specifying his intentions.

On Wednesday, Mr. Biden had judged that a Russian attack with chemical weapons was “a credible threat”.

In a sign that the threat is real, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced the shipment of protective equipment against chemical, biological and nuclear threats to Ukraine. Protection of the Ukrainian forces deployed on the eastern flank will also be ensured. “This could include detection, equipment, protection and medical support, as well as decontamination and crisis management training,” he said, noting that chemical defense elements, biological, radiological and nuclear Alliance had been “activated”.

“We can expect anything from Russia, which does not respect any law. And we have to be prepared for this kind of situation”, insisted the Prime Minister of Finland, Sanna Marin. Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša “does not think that Russia is going to use these weapons on purpose”, but argues that “the bombings in Ukraine are hitting chemical plants”, which can “cause a catastrophe”.

How far will Putin go?

Asked about this on Tuesday, on CNN International, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia would only use nuclear weapons in Ukraine in the event of an “existential threat” against the country. “An existential threat to Russia means direct NATO intervention, which is Putin’s explicit position since the declaration of war. From the start, he talked about repercussions that we would never have seen in history if that happened, ”explains Guillaume Sauvé, researcher at the Center for International Studies and Research at the University of Montreal.

For the expert in Russian politics, using chemical weapons would be very risky for the regime of Vladimir Putin.

The catch is that Russia and its president “have passed the stage of worrying about public opinion about total war”. “The state has already taken exceptional measures to lock down public space. People who are against the war, either they leave or they keep quiet. So there does not seem to be any internal brake for Russia in its action in Ukraine. That’s all the issue,” argues Mr. Sauvé.

According to Guy Marleau, a nuclear engineering specialist and retired professor from Polytechnique Montréal, “anything is possible” for Russia. “However, a very large chemical use, that could imply that the Russian soldiers are also struck. Using that in the city is madness,” he reasons. “What could happen, if it happens, is that we send gas into subway tunnels, for example, or very confined places, just to kill civilians or people who are hidden there. But I don’t think the Russians and their military want to get involved in this,” adds Mr. Marleau.

Kadyrov says he took Mariupol

The leader of the Russian republic of Chechnya and loyal to Russian President Ramzan Kadyrov also said Thursday that his troops had taken the town hall of Mariupol.

However, in a video released shortly after, we see a group of soldiers hoisting a flag bearing the image of the Chechen leader, but rather on a damaged building on the outskirts of this large city in south-eastern Ukraine, which the Russian army besieged. If taken, the city of Mariupol would become the first major settlement controlled by Russia, after a month-long offensive that saw the Russian army struggling in the face of fierce Ukrainian resistance. However, the information could not be confirmed from an independent source on Thursday evening.

In the hours that followed, the Russians and Ukrainians exchanged about ten captured occupiers, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk reported. The UN General Assembly, for its part, adopted on Thursday by an overwhelming majority of 140 votes a new text which “demands” from Russia an “immediate” end to the war in Ukraine. This was a second resolution considered “historic”, but which remains non-binding.

With Agence France-Presse