War in Ukraine | End of negotiations if Mariupol falls

A “totally inhuman situation” persists in Mariupol, President Volodymyr Zelensky denounced on Saturday evening. Earlier, he issued a warning to Moscow that he will end all peace negotiations with Russia if the last Ukrainian soldiers in the besieged city are “eliminated”.

“The situation in Mariupol remains as serious as it gets. Simply inhuman,” said Volodymyr Zelensky, who once again pleaded for the West to send more weapons to Ukraine.

“That’s what the Russian Federation did. What she did deliberately. […] Russia is deliberately trying to destroy anyone in Mariupol,” the Ukrainian head of state denounced.

A few hours earlier, he had warned that the “elimination” of the last Ukrainian soldiers present in the port city of Mariupol “would put an end to all peace negotiations” with Russia. The two countries would then find themselves in “an impasse”, declared Volodymyr Zelensky during an interview with the Ukrainian press.

Mariupol, the second largest city in the Donbass, besieged by Russian forces, is key to the Kremlin’s strategy. “This is the context of Mr. Zelensky’s statement: if Mariupol falls, there is nothing left to negotiate,” said Dominique Arel, director of the Chair of Ukrainian Studies at the University of Ottawa.

This is now Moscow’s priority: to “liberate” the Donbass. Since the start of the war, Russia has been demanding the partition of Ukraine, a “non-negotiable” claim for Kyiv, underlines Mr. Arel.

The talks with Russia having already stalled, “it means recognizing that ultimately, the only solution will be military, before eventually coming to a political, diplomatic solution”, he believes.

“Certainly for a few weeks, the negotiations have been a smokescreen. It is clear that it was not progressing, ”supports the expert.

There is indeed a form of “dialogue” between the two parties, particularly on the issue of humanitarian evacuations and that of prisoner exchanges, but the substantive positions have not “advanced a millimeter”.

In the absence of negotiations, the result is “an all-out war”, says Luca Sollai, professor of history at the University of Montreal. The NATO specialist finds it hard to see Kyiv ceasing any attempt at peace with Russia.

“Even with military support from Western countries, I find it hard to see how Ukraine could wage this war,” he argues.

Moscow offers to spare Ukrainian soldiers

Moscow offers the last Ukrainian soldiers present in Mariupol to leave. The Russian Defense Ministry offered Saturday to spare the lives of fighters who are entrenched in the Azovstal metallurgical complex, if they evacuate before Sunday morning. “Their only chance to save their lives is to voluntarily lay down their weapons and surrender,” the Kremlin said.

After nearly two months of bloody fighting, the strategic port in southeastern Ukraine is preparing to fight its final battle, the Ukrainian army announced a few days ago.

On Saturday, the Ukrainian president admitted that the situation in Mariupol was “very difficult” and that Ukrainian forces only controlled part of the city.

In the eyes of Volodymyr Zelensky, only two outcomes are possible. “Either the partners provide Ukraine with all the necessary heavy weapons, planes and, without exaggeration, immediately”, to “reduce the pressure on Mariupol and lift the siege”. Either we engage in “the path of negotiation. […] [Et là encore], the role of the partners should be decisive”. The search for a “military or diplomatic” solution has been a “daily” activity since the beginning of the blockade, he added, but it is proving “extremely difficult”.

Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich has traveled to Kyiv to try to revive peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, Bloomberg reported on Saturday, citing people familiar with the matter.

According to the American media, the billionaire has acted as an informal mediator since the start of the Russian invasion, when the Ukrainian president asked him to get involved.

Kyiv bombed

The response promised by Moscow to the sinking of the Moskva didn’t take long. Russian forces have resumed their attack on Kyiv, as announced on Friday.

One person was killed and several were hospitalized following a strike on Saturday against an industrial complex in the suburbs of the Ukrainian capital, which notably builds tanks, announced the mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko.

Russia for its part affirmed that “production buildings of an armaments factory in Kyiv” had been destroyed.

The capital and its surroundings had been relatively spared since the withdrawal of Russian troops from the north of the country at the end of March, but the loss of its flagship, sunk by two Ukrainian missiles, according to the Pentagon, provoked the ire of Moscow.

Russian forces have also shelled an oil refinery in eastern Ukraine, which is holding its breath in fear of an impending major offensive. The governor of the Luhansk region, Sergiï Gaïdaï, called on its inhabitants to leave. “While you have the chance, evacuate,” he wrote on Telegram.

The world must “prepare”

The president of Ukraine again alerted the world on Saturday to a possible recourse by Russia to nuclear weapons.

The day before, he had also issued a warning.

“We need medicine [contre les radiations], air-raid shelters,” he pleaded. “We have to talk to them, sign treaties, crack down economically. [Les Russes] can use any weapon, I am convinced of that,” the Head of State said.

Russian video of the survivors of the Moskva

The Ministry of Defense of Russia broadcast on Saturday a video of about thirty seconds supposed to present the survivors of the Moskvawhich sank in the Black Sea on Thursday.

“The Commander-in-Chief of the Navy, Admiral Nikolay Yevmenov, and the Commander of the Black Sea Fleet met with the crew of the cruiser Moskva in Sevastopol,” in Crimea, the ministry said in a brief statement.

The admiral “informed the crew of the cruiser that officers, midshipmen and sailors would continue to serve in the navy”, he added.

In addition, Moscow has banned access to its soil to the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Boris Johnson, as well as to a dozen senior British officials, in response to the sanctions aimed at Russia.

The Ministry of Defense statement cites “unprecedented hostile actions by the British government, expressed in particular in the imposition of sanctions against senior officials” in Russia.

On April 9, Boris Johnson made a surprise visit to Kyiv, which had never received a G7 leader since the start of the war in Ukraine.

With Agence France-Presse, Associated Press and Bloomberg